Is North Korea Sending More Experienced Soldiers to the Ukraine Conflict?

Recent reports indicate that North Korean troops, who have been fighting alongside Russian forces in Kursk since late 2024, may have withdrawn from the front lines. This development comes amid claims of significant casualties among these soldiers. However, military analysts caution against jumping to conclusions, suggesting that a more complex strategy could be at play.

According to military expert Franz-Stefan Gady, the withdrawal of North Korean forces does not necessarily signify defeat. Gady points out that the North Korean army, which has had limited combat experience since the Korean War, has gained valuable insights from its involvement in the Ukraine conflict. This experience may lead to tactical adjustments and potentially a return to the fighting.

Despite the withdrawal, Gady anticipates that North Korea will deploy additional troops to support Russian efforts. He highlights the typical progression of inexperienced military units in combat, where initial losses can lead to adaptations in strategy and performance. The key to understanding the situation, he notes, lies in the relative loss rates between the North Korean and Ukrainian forces.

The ongoing conflict is characterized by attrition, and the effectiveness of military campaigns is often measured by casualty figures. Analysts are currently assessing how many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded in response to North Korean offensives and the extent of damage to Ukrainian military resources.

The perception of a North Korean defeat may also stem from analyses by individuals without direct combat experience or engagement with Ukrainian forces. Observers often overlook the respect that some Ukrainian officers have for their North Korean counterparts, indicating a more nuanced understanding of the conflict.

Reports from South Korea, Ukraine, and the United States suggest that approximately 11,000 North Korean troops have been stationed in the Kursk region since last October, tasked with aiding Russia in reclaiming territory lost to Ukraine following a surprise offensive in August. Despite initial gains, it is believed that Ukraine has since regained control over much of the area.