Anticipated Concessions from Ukraine: Media Reports on US 'Final' Peace Plan

Recent reports indicate that the United States has proposed a peace plan aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which may require significant concessions from the Ukrainian government. According to various media outlets, including Axios, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and the Financial Times, the plan includes the unofficial recognition of Russian control over nearly all territories occupied since the onset of the war in 2022.

One of the most critical aspects of the proposal is the potential official recognition of Crimea as part of Russia. Although the peninsula has been under Russian occupation, it has not been internationally recognized as Russian territory. The plan would also involve the ceding of the entire Luhansk region, significant portions of Donetsk, and large areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to Russia.

Reportedly, the peace plan is concise, consisting of only one page, and was discussed during a meeting in Paris last week involving US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Ukrainian representatives, and negotiators from other European nations. The US has labeled this proposal as a 'final offer,' with Rubio stating that if decisive actions are not taken soon, the US may withdraw from the negotiations.

Former President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the possibility of a deal being reached between Russia and Ukraine, suggesting that negotiations are progressing. The reports also indicate that as part of the proposed framework, the US might lift sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014. Additionally, a small section of the territory currently under Russian control in Kharkiv may be returned to Ukraine.

Under the plan, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant would be regarded as Ukrainian territory but operated under US management, with electricity produced there supplied to both Ukraine and Russia. Although Ukraine would be expected to refrain from joining NATO, it could pursue membership in the European Union.

The proposal also includes the establishment of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine, although this would not involve US military personnel. While the US suggests freezing the current front lines as part of a peace agreement, it is anticipated that Russia would halt its military actions in Ukraine when it is advantageous to do so.

Reports indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested a corresponding ceasefire after meeting with Witkoff in Moscow earlier this month.

A source close to the Ukrainian government characterized the proposal as heavily skewed in favor of Russia, noting that it clearly outlines the benefits for Russia while providing vague assurances for Ukraine.

Further details of the peace plan suggest an increased economic collaboration between the US and Russia, particularly in the energy sector. Ukraine would be allowed to utilize the Dnipro River freely for shipping, with its borders adjusted to align with the new Russian territories. The proposal also offers support for Ukraine's reconstruction efforts, although the source of funding remains unspecified.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed strong opposition to any territorial concessions to Russia, emphasizing that such discussions are unconstitutional. Ahead of a crucial meeting in London with Western allies to discuss an end to the Russian invasion, Zelenskyy firmly stated that there is nothing to negotiate regarding land transfers.

US Secretary of State Rubio will not attend the London meeting as previously reported; however, Special Envoy Keith Kellogg is expected to participate. The gathering will include foreign ministers and security advisors from the US, several European allies, and Ukraine, aiming to advance discussions about ending the conflict.

During the talks, Zelenskyy's delegation will be tasked with discussing a potential unconditional or partial ceasefire. The president pointed out that the recently declared ceasefire by Russia is merely a tactic, underscoring that the responsibility to reduce hostilities lies with Moscow.

The White House anticipates a response from Kyiv regarding the proposed concessions during the London discussions. Should Ukraine signal approval, the US plans to present the proposals to Moscow, with Witkoff expected to travel to Russia for further discussions with President Putin.