US and European Allies Move Forward with Security Guarantees for Ukraine in Paris Talks

In Paris, leaders and senior officials from countries supporting Ukraine have convened for discussions aimed at establishing concrete security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a future ceasefire. This gathering marks the first in-person meeting of representatives from all 35 member states of the so-called 'Coalition of the Willing' since early 2025. Among the attendees are 27 heads of state and government, including Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as well as delegates from the European Union, NATO, and US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

The Paris negotiations follow a recent summit between President Zelensky and US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, where Zelensky had outlined his aim to secure binding security commitments from Ukraine's allies by the end of January. These guarantees are seen as a critical step towards a broader peace plan, with the intention of presenting a unified Western position in future discussions with Russia. Previous attempts to reach such an accord, including a 28-point US proposal and a revised 20-point plan from Ukraine, failed to achieve consensus among all supporting countries.

According to drafts under consideration, the proposed security assurances are intended to be legally binding, addressing Ukraine's concerns over potential future Russian aggression. The guarantees would serve as a precondition for Ukraine to consider certain Russian demands in any peace process. However, the effectiveness of these commitments remains uncertain, as their implementation would likely depend on Russian approval, making them an interim measure rather than a definitive resolution to the conflict.

Drafts suggest that the United States would play a leading role in monitoring any prospective ceasefire in Ukraine. In addition, the US is expected to pledge support for a planned international force, to be led by European nations, tasked with assisting Ukraine in the event of renewed hostilities. This support would include intelligence-sharing and logistical backing. Military planning for air, sea, and land security measures, as well as the reconstruction of Ukraine's armed forces, is reportedly already underway.

The security commitments outlined in the documents would encompass the deployment of military capabilities, intelligence and logistical support, diplomatic initiatives, and the imposition of additional sanctions should Russia launch another attack. However, specific details regarding a possible peacekeeping force remain undisclosed. Notably, the United States has ruled out contributing troops to such a mission, while Russia has indicated its opposition to the presence of Western military personnel in Ukraine. These positions could complicate efforts to reach a final agreement with Moscow and underscore the importance of US backing for the arrangements made between Ukraine and its European partners.

French officials have expressed optimism regarding the prospects for an agreement, emphasizing the significance of renewed cooperation between Ukraine, Europe, and the United States. The participation of US negotiators in Paris is seen as a positive signal of transatlantic unity and continued American support for Ukraine. President Zelensky is expected to hold further bilateral talks with the US representatives during the summit.

Key issues under discussion include the mechanisms for monitoring a potential ceasefire line, the US role in supporting a European-led security mission, and legally binding guarantees for the modernization and strengthening of Ukraine's armed forces. French authorities have highlighted that Ukraine's military remains the cornerstone of the country's security, even as international guarantees are negotiated.