Russian Offensive in Kursk Increases Pressure on Ukraine

Russia has achieved significant advancements in its efforts to displace Ukrainian forces from the Kursk border region, marking its most substantial successes in months. Reports from the Russian military, Ukrainian military bloggers, and independent observers indicate that Ukrainian troops have retreated from several settlements, particularly north of the strategically important town of Sudscha. The situation has escalated to a point where the Ukrainian presence in Sudscha itself is now under threat.

Both sides have indicated that the objective of these assaults is to push Ukrainian forces back into their own territory or to isolate them within Kursk. Over the past few days, Russia has launched numerous attacks on positions along the H-07 road, which leads from the Ukrainian border area of Sumy into Russia and passes through Sudscha, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Data from ISW and the military-adjacent monitoring group DeepState reveal that Russian troops are now only a few kilometers away from the H-07 road, having occupied Ukrainian border villages in the Sumy region for the first time since 2022. This area lies west of the Ukrainian-controlled territory in Kursk.

In the wake of heavy fighting, the Ukrainian-controlled area in Kursk has diminished by 80 percent. Ukraine initially made an unexpected incursion into Kursk last August, marking the first entry of a foreign military into Russian territory since World War II. Ukrainian forces captured over 1,000 square kilometers of Russian land around Sudscha in just a few days. However, efforts to displace Russia from a comparable area west of Sudscha through targeted attacks on bridges have failed.

Recent footage has shown Russian troops crossing into Ukraine near the villages of Schurawka and Nowenke, approximately five kilometers northwest of the H-07 supply route. Following this, Russian assaults targeted the settlements of Pogrebki, Malaja Loknaja, and Martynowka, pushing Ukrainian forces back several kilometers toward Sudscha. Reports indicate that Russian forces have also targeted several smaller bridges around the town, likely aiming to increase Ukraine's reliance on the main supply road, which could become nearly unusable due to drone attacks as Russian forces advance within close proximity.

Additionally, Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a striking attack on Sudscha itself, with conflicting accounts regarding the outcome. Ukrainian military officials claimed that Russian units attempted to approach Sudscha through a gas pipeline running through the area. Ukrainian reconnaissance detected these units, resulting in significant casualties from artillery fire. The gas pipeline, which previously transported Russian gas to Europe, has been a focal point for military maneuvers.

The Kursk situation is precarious for Ukraine, as Russian forces have advanced to within six kilometers of the supply routes on both the western and eastern flanks of Sudscha, with the town itself under direct assault. Reports suggest that Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk are heavily outnumbered, with estimates of about 10,000 Ukrainian troops facing up to 50,000 Russian and North Korean soldiers in the region.

Notably, the recent Russian advances have coincided with a cessation of intelligence sharing from the United States to Ukraine, particularly impacting Ukrainian reconnaissance in Kursk. This raises concerns about the efficacy of Ukrainian military operations, especially given the lack of reported attacks using U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket systems. While the timing of these developments is striking, a definitive link between U.S. policy changes and Russian successes remains unproven, according to ISW.

The Russian counteroffensive comes at a challenging time for Ukraine, which is navigating uncertainty regarding the resumption of U.S. military aid and intelligence support. President Donald Trump has linked the renewal of assistance to Ukraine demonstrating a willingness for peace, a sentiment he recently expressed skepticism towards regarding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Discussions between Ukrainian and U.S. representatives about a potential ceasefire are scheduled to take place in Saudi Arabia this week, while concurrent talks with Russia are ongoing. The outcome of these negotiations remains uncertain. Ukraine had intended to leverage its territorial gains in Kursk as a bargaining chip, potentially trading them for parts of Russian-occupied areas. However, the recent Russian military successes have likely diminished the value of this bargaining position.

If Russia continues to reclaim territory in Kursk, Ukraine could face the necessity of a complete withdrawal from the region. This would impede the mobility of Ukrainian forces to reinforce other critical fronts, such as the contested city of Pokrowsk, as they would then be positioned against tens of thousands of Russian soldiers threatening Sumy, unlike during their initial incursion in August 2024.