Hesse's CDU Surpasses National Party in Latest INSA Poll

The most recent INSA survey indicates that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Hesse continues to outperform the party's national standing, maintaining a strong lead in the state. Under the leadership of Minister President Boris Rhein, the Hesse CDU stands at 32 percent support, according to the poll, marking an increase of one percentage point since the previous survey. This stability comes despite the CDU's declining approval ratings nationwide, where the party led by Friedrich Merz currently polls at 24.5 percent.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) ranks second in Hesse with 20 percent, gaining one percentage point. This 12-point gap between the CDU and AfD highlights the CDU's dominant position in the region. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), which now serves as the junior partner in the state government, has risen to 15 percent support, representing a gain of one percentage point.

The Greens, who previously shared power in Hesse until 2023, currently hold 12 percent according to the latest poll. Meanwhile, left-leaning parties are experiencing further declines. The Left party has dropped to seven percent, a decrease of two percentage points since the last measurement. The recently established Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) also fell by two points, now standing at just three percent.

Parties failing to reach the five percent threshold collectively account for 14 percent of the vote, effectively excluding them from representation in the state parliament. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) has seen a modest recovery, climbing to four percent with a one-point gain.

To form a governing majority in Hesse, parties now require over 43 percent of the vote. The current coalition of CDU and SPD comfortably meets this criterion, totaling 47 percent. An alternative coalition of CDU and Greens would also surpass the majority threshold with 44 percent. Conversely, a left-leaning alliance comprised of SPD, Greens, and the Left party would only achieve 34 percent, falling significantly short of the required majority.

On the right, the combined support for CDU and AfD reaches 52 percent, illustrating a clear majority for these parties among the electorate. According to INSA, the CDU remains the strongest political force in Hesse and is positioned advantageously when choosing potential coalition partners.

These results reflect a period of political stability in Hesse, contrasting with the more fragmented political landscape observed nationally. The CDU's robust performance at the state level underscores regional differences in party support and highlights the importance of local leadership in shaping voter preferences. The survey suggests that Hesse's political landscape is characterized by consistent party strengths and the continued viability of center-right coalitions.