Critical Fuel Shortages Emerge in Russia Amid Ongoing Conflict

In the wake of continued military operations in Ukraine, reports indicate that several regions in Russia, including Crimea, are facing significant fuel shortages. The situation has raised concerns among citizens, with many expressing frustration towards President Vladimir Putin's administration.

As the conflict persists, Russian airstrikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure have garnered widespread attention, particularly when civilian casualties are involved. Ukrainian forces have responded by striking military installations and energy production sites, including oil refineries and power plants.

Recent images and accounts suggest that Moscow is attempting to downplay the impact of these counterattacks, but evidence points to a growing crisis. Fuel supply issues have become particularly acute in Crimea, a region annexed by Russia in 2014. According to international news agencies, some gas stations are reportedly unable to afford fuel supplies due to the ongoing conflict.

Reports indicate that production at Russian oil refineries has been reduced by as much as 20% on certain days, and exports from key ports have also declined. Popular fuel types, including AI-92 and AI-95, are frequently unavailable, yet long queues at gas stations have not been observed.

In August, the fuel shortages began affecting regions in Russia's far east and Crimea, eventually spreading to the Volga region and southern areas. Anonymous sources have indicated that independent gas stations, which account for approximately 40% of the market, are particularly vulnerable. Some stations have even closed temporarily.

Recent reports from local media have highlighted the dire situation, with some gas stations in Crimea completely out of fuel as of September 24. An activist from the 'Liberate Crimea' campaign described the conditions as worsening over a ten-day period, leading to increased wait times for taxis and fewer cars on the roads. Many residents are openly voicing their dissatisfaction with the government's handling of the crisis.

The independent news outlet Cherta has reported that fuel scarcity extends to over ten regions in Russia, with prices on the rise. A local activist characterized the situation in parts of Crimea as 'critical,' noting that only diesel and natural gas are available at some gas stations, while a rationing system has been implemented, allowing only government vehicles to refuel.

Experts have pointed out that the ongoing fuel shortages reveal chronic issues within the Russian fuel market. Officials have attributed the shortages to seasonal factors, such as increased tourism and agricultural demand, which typically rise during this time of year. However, analysts maintain that while the situation is challenging, it remains manageable.

According to Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Russia should still be able to meet domestic demand. He noted that damaged refineries can continue to operate at reduced levels, and state reserves could be utilized alongside potential assistance from Belarus. He concluded that the country is not facing a full-blown crisis that could disrupt the functioning of the economy or military operations.

In response to the fuel shortages, Sergei Aksyonov, the head of the unrecognized Republic of Crimea, announced via social media that measures are being taken to restore fuel supplies. He assured residents that necessary quantities of AI-95 would be available within two days, while AI-92 may take up to two weeks to replenish.

Additionally, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that fuel exports would remain banned for several months. This decision, according to state media, extends the previous restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports until the end of the year, with exceptions for interstate agreements.