Ukraine Summit in London: Why Isn't Merz Consulting?

The Ukraine summit in London, initially set as a routine meeting, has transformed into a crucial crisis summit following a significant incident at the White House involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump. This gathering sees Western leaders convening to discuss the implications for Ukraine and transatlantic relations.

Just two days after the unprecedented fallout between Trump and Zelensky, European leaders, including Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz, are coming together at Lancaster House, hosted by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The urgency of this summit is amplified by the recent tensions, prompting discussions on how to respond to the evolving situation in Ukraine.

Key topics on the agenda include establishing a robust and lasting agreement to secure peace and ensure Ukraine's capability to defend against future Russian aggression. The British government has indicated that both the UK and France are prepared to contribute troops to a peacekeeping force. The summit will also address Europe's future defense strategies, especially in light of the UK's commitment to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027.

The fallout from the incident in Washington has reverberated across Europe, with many leaders expressing their support for Zelensky. Scholz emphasized Germany's commitment to Ukraine, stating that the country can rely on both Germany and Europe. However, concerns persist regarding a potential rift in transatlantic relations, given Trump's abrupt departure from traditional alliances.

The unity within the European Union is also under scrutiny, particularly with Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban threatening to block any new aid to Ukraine due to his close ties with both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Orban has expressed his disapproval of a unified EU stance, suggesting that Europe should instead pursue direct negotiations with Russia for a ceasefire.

The leaders attending the summit will have to navigate the complexities of their relationships with Trump, as both Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have recently engaged with the U.S. president. Despite presenting a united front, the dynamics have shifted significantly following the incident with Zelensky, complicating the EU's position.

Germany's role in this evolving situation is notable, as Scholz, now acting as a caretaker chancellor, finds himself marginalized in diplomatic discussions. This contrasts with his counterparts who have actively engaged with Trump, raising questions about Germany's influence in ongoing negotiations.

Regarding the absence of Friedrich Merz, the leader of the opposition in Germany, from the summit, it is customary for the current chancellor to represent the country. Scholz maintains regular communication with Merz, especially in light of the recent crisis, but the transitional nature of his government limits Merz's involvement in international diplomacy.

The implications of the incident in Washington extend beyond immediate diplomatic relations, influencing the pace and content of Germany's government formation discussions. The urgency to establish a fully functioning coalition government has intensified, particularly with regards to defense spending and support for Ukraine.

As discussions unfold, there are significant concerns about NATO's cohesion amidst these tensions. The potential for the U.S. to withdraw from NATO remains a pressing worry, given Trump's previous threats during his first term. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte faces the challenge of maintaining alliance unity while continuing to support Ukraine against Russian aggression.

During the summit, Trump is expected to be in Florida, where he typically spends weekends at his Mar-a-Lago estate. His responses to the recent diplomatic turmoil have been minimal, focusing instead on other topics on his social media platform.