Three Years into the Russian Invasion: The Future of Ukraine Remains Uncertain

As of February 24, 2025, Ukraine finds itself in a precarious position, three years after the commencement of the Russian invasion that began in 2022. The conflict has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths, extensive destruction of cities, and environmental devastation. The prospect of peace remains bleak.

President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops to invade Ukraine in the early hours of February 24, 2022, putting the existence of the largest country in Europe at risk. The security framework of the continent has been severely disrupted. The United States, historically Ukraine's most significant ally, is now seeking to establish a compromise with Russia under the new administration of President Donald Trump, aiming for a swift resolution to the hostilities. European nations are convening urgently to determine how best to assist Ukraine while responding to the diminishing support from the U.S.

Estimations of casualties in the ongoing conflict are staggering. While no precise figures are available, estimates suggest that the number of fatalities may reach into the tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reported over 46,000 military fatalities, while independent sources like UA Losses have documented at least 65,500 Ukrainian soldiers' deaths based on publicly accessible data. Additionally, the United Nations reports that as of January, 12,600 Ukrainian civilians have been confirmed dead, with 29,200 injured; however, many more remain unaccounted for, particularly following the onslaught in the port city of Mariupol at the war's onset.

On the Russian side, investigations have revealed at least 93,600 military casualties, with the BBC estimating the numbers could be as high as 223,500. The Russian government has refrained from providing official tallies, and reports indicate several hundred civilian casualties in border regions adjacent to Ukraine.

Currently, the military situation is dire for Ukraine, which has been on the defensive since autumn 2023. The Ukrainian army faces significant pressure, particularly in the eastern region of Donetsk, where it has lost an additional 400 square kilometers since the beginning of 2025. Approximately 20% of Ukraine is under Russian control, with Ukrainian forces managing to maintain a foothold in Kursk, although this territory is also diminishing. The imbalance in troop strength and military equipment, alongside the use of glide bombs by the Russian Air Force, has compounded the challenges faced by Ukrainian defenders.

Despite the ongoing hostilities, life in Ukraine continues under the strain of three years of war. International aid and loans exceeding 39 billion euros annually have helped stave off a complete economic collapse, allowing for timely salary and pension disbursements. The agricultural sector persists despite numerous challenges, although inflation unexpectedly surged from five to twelve percent in 2024. In urban areas away from the front lines, businesses, restaurants, and transportation systems appear operational, even as air alerts remain a nightly occurrence. Many establishments have resorted to using generators to cope with electricity shortages caused by Russian attacks.

Surveys indicate that more than half of the Ukrainian populace continues to support President Zelenskyy, despite skepticism from some international figures regarding his leadership. There remains a strong consensus against territorial concessions to Russia, though an increasing number of citizens are beginning to advocate for negotiations to reach a resolution.

Officially, Ukraine is unlikely to concede any of the territories occupied by Russia. Instead, President Zelenskyy has shifted the narrative to emphasize the need for equitable peace rather than outright victory. He has articulated that the primary concern is securing genuine guarantees of safety, which he deems essential for Ukraine's survival post-conflict. This includes aspirations for NATO and EU membership, the presence of allied military forces, and a robust national defense.

In Russia, the realities of war are less visible, with the atmosphere in Moscow reflecting a strong militarization of society following a full transition to a war economy. The government reportedly allocates around 135 billion euros for military expenses this year, constituting approximately 40% of the national budget. The rhetoric surrounding the conflict has permeated all facets of Russian life, with dissenting voices increasingly silenced or exiled, while the majority have acclimatized to a mindset of conflict against the West.

As the U.S. administration seeks a renewed dialogue with Moscow, the potential for a settlement grows, although it is complicated by Russia's uncompromising demands, which include the acknowledgment of annexed territories and the disarmament of Ukraine. The geopolitical landscape remains fraught, with the risk that major powers may broker deals that exclude Ukraine from the decision-making process.