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Naples, Italy - The region surrounding Naples is repeatedly shaken by earthquakes, with a massive supervolcano lurking beneath the ground and sea. A prominent scientist from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology has raised alarms about the potential for an eruption at any moment, without prior warning.
Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo, a volcanologist at INGV, emphasized that the Campi Flegrei, or Phlegraean Fields, cannot be compared to more well-studied volcanoes like Mount Etna. He noted that the area could catch observers off guard, as it may remain quiet with no signs of ground deformation or bradyseism, which refers to very slow earthquakes that elevate the ground. Currently, the ground in the area is rising at a rate of three centimeters per month, leading to complications such as the drying up of many boats at the old port of Pozzuoli.
Authorities have prepared mass evacuation plans in the event of an eruption, aiming to relocate up to half a million residents within 72 hours. Despite these preparations, experts have reassured the public that an eruption is not imminent. However, Mastrolorenzo believes otherwise, pointing out that scientists are unable to predict the eruption of a supervolcano because no one has ever witnessed such an event.
The unpredictability of the situation is exacerbated by the lack of historical data and the complex nature of volcanic systems. While scientists can attempt to estimate whether an eruption is near, the risk remains significant. Recent seismic activity, including a magnitude 4.4 earthquake that occurred a week ago, could serve as precursors to an eruption.
Calculations suggest that a potential eruption could unleash energy ten times greater than that of the infamous eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 A.D., which devastated the region and resulted in thousands of fatalities. Mastrolorenzo reported that the supervolcano has been releasing increasing amounts of carbon dioxide, currently estimated at 5,000 tons per day, prompting temporary evacuations of schools and residences due to the accumulation of the odorless, lethal gas in basements. Additionally, emissions of hydrogen sulfide from the Solfatara crater have quintupled, raising concerns about an overdue super-eruption.
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