Russia's Bid for a Leadership Change in Ukraine Complicates US Relations

Moscow is ramping up its calls for a leadership change in Ukraine, aiming to replace President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with a more compliant administration. This strategy, however, could jeopardize the support of US President Donald Trump, thereby threatening a crucial window for potential diplomatic resolutions.

According to several anonymous sources familiar with Kremlin strategies and reported by the Moscow Times, Russia is pursuing two primary scenarios regarding its military operations in Ukraine: either forcing Kyiv's complete capitulation and transforming Ukraine into a Belarus-like satellite state or establishing long-term control over the four occupied regions while curtailing Ukrainian sovereignty. Both scenarios are challenging to implement, especially since Zelenskyy firmly rejects any territorial concessions and relies heavily on Western support.

In recent developments, the Kremlin is exploring a third avenue: undermining Zelenskyy's credibility in front of Trump to compel new elections in Ukraine. A Russian diplomat indicated that negotiating with the current leadership while labeling it as a 'Nazi regime' is contradictory. President Vladimir Putin has suggested holding 'democratic elections under the external supervision of the UN and the USA,' a significant and unprecedented proposal.

However, Trump's patience appears to be waning. In a recent NBC interview, he expressed anger over Putin's attacks on Zelenskyy, stating he was 'very upset' by the Russian leader's attempts to discredit the Ukrainian president. Trump threatened to impose severe tariffs on Russian oil, ranging from 25% to 50%, should Moscow let negotiations fail. A source close to the Kremlin warned that missing this opportunity could lead to Trump losing interest, potentially escalating tensions.

Amidst these developments, Zelenskyy has shown no inclination to compromise with the Russian aggressor, asserting that Putin will have no say in peace talks. He pointed out the ongoing Russian assaults despite proclaimed ceasefires. Reports suggest that Putin has ordered the military to prepare for intensified operations to leverage their current advantage.

The Kremlin attempts to justify its position by accusing Kyiv of violating the prevailing ceasefire, a claim the Ukrainian government has dismissed. Furthermore, Russian Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov, a former KGB officer, has warned of potential chaos and civil war in Ukraine if Zelenskyy remains in power, according to the Moscow Times.

Nonetheless, the Kremlin's obstinacy could backfire. If Moscow allows negotiations to collapse, it risks not only Trump's ire but also a renewed unity among Western nations against Russia. 'Biden will appear benevolent compared to an enraged Trump,' cautioned a Kremlin-affiliated source. As Zelenskyy pushes for a strong response from allies, the question remains whether Putin is willing to abandon maximalist war goals in favor of a deal with Trump.