Mozambican Refugees in Malawi Consider Returning Amid Challenges

Following a wave of violence during the recent elections in Mozambique, many citizens fled to Malawi, looking for safety. Recent developments indicate that some are contemplating a return home, although the situation in Mozambique remains precarious, with ongoing economic difficulties.

The unrest erupted around the disputed election held in October 2024, which resulted in the deaths of approximately 300 individuals and forced around 13,000 Mozambicans to seek refuge across the border in southern Malawi. As conditions stabilize, both Mozambican and Malawian authorities are working to facilitate the safe return of these refugees.

The violence was triggered by the election of Daniel Chapo from the ruling Frelimo party, who succeeded President Filipe Nyusi, barred from seeking a third term due to constitutional limits. Chapo's ascent was met with claims of electoral fraud from opposition leader Venancio Mondlane, igniting widespread protests across Mozambique. The situation escalated following confirmation of Chapo's victory by the Constitutional Council, which upheld Frelimo's longstanding hold on power since the nation's independence from Portugal in 1975.

A significant number of refugees arrived in the Nsanje district of Malawi, a region geographically bordered by Mozambique. Many fled on foot, by boat, or by road, often carrying only essential belongings. The journey was perilous, with some navigating rivers infested with crocodiles and hippos, seeking refuge in displacement camps near small villages. Basic necessities such as food and medical supplies were severely lacking, further complicating the situation as Malawi continues to host over 50,000 refugees from various African nations.

Malawi, identified by the World Bank as one of the poorest countries globally, is also grappling with agricultural challenges due to poor rainfall exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon. As the rainy season begins, the threat of diseases like cholera and malaria looms, heightening the urgency of the refugee crisis.

Local human rights advocates emphasize the importance of peace in Mozambique for a successful repatriation process. They recall past experiences of hosting Mozambican refugees during the civil war from 1977 to 1992 and highlight that voluntary repatriation is crucial for those wishing to return to their farms in Mozambique.

If refugees remain in Malawi longer, they risk exacerbating their situation, as agricultural needs back home remain unaddressed. The Mozambican government has reportedly assured Malawian officials of the safety of returnees, although skepticism exists among those who have lost property, livestock, and loved ones due to the violence.

Refugees express hesitation about returning without clear guarantees of safety and stability, with many requiring reassurance from credible sources that conditions in Mozambique have improved.

In addition to the humanitarian concerns, Mozambique's economy faces significant challenges in the aftermath of the violence. Economists stress the need for economic stability and a conducive business environment to recover from the recent upheaval. The unrest has severely impacted the economy, with estimates suggesting that at least 1,000 businesses have closed due to vandalism and disorder. The chamber of commerce warns that many of these businesses may never recover from the losses.

The destruction of infrastructure is estimated at around 40%, and the country is struggling to rehabilitate amidst financial constraints. The economic fallout has resulted in job losses for approximately 17,000 individuals, and the government has reported a significant decline in tax revenue.