Lebanon's Presidential Election: A Step Towards Political Stability

Lebanon has been without a president since 2023, but a significant event is on the horizon as lawmakers prepare for a crucial presidential election this week. This marks the 13th attempt by the Lebanese Parliament to elect a new head of state, amid a backdrop of political stagnation and economic turmoil.

According to the Lebanese constitution, governance is primarily the responsibility of the prime minister and the Cabinet. However, the current transitional government under Prime Minister Najib Mikati has limited authority and has struggled to address the nation's pressing political and economic crises.

The recent ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Hezbollah at the end of November has created new momentum for this election. Following weeks of conflict, the need for a stable executive to implement the ceasefire, which is set to expire at the end of January, has become increasingly urgent.

Lebanon faces multiple crises, including a severe economic downturn, with banks freezing deposits and the Lebanese pound experiencing significant depreciation. The repercussions of the recent conflicts have also led to extensive destruction within the country, necessitating urgent repairs.

Moreover, consolidating the ceasefire is paramount, as the government reports that approximately 1.3 million individuals have been internally displaced due to the ongoing conflict. Addressing the return of these displaced citizens, alongside the many Syrian refugees residing in Lebanon, is critical for the nation's recovery.

Experts highlight the dire need for a leader who can represent a fresh start for the country. The political landscape is complex, characterized by numerous factions representing Lebanon's diverse ethnic and religious groups. This necessitates intense negotiations among political parties to endorse candidates who have a realistic chance of success.

Traditionally, the electoral process follows a confessional system where the highest offices are allocated based on sectarian affiliations. For instance, the presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian, the prime minister for a Sunni Muslim, and the parliamentary speaker for a Shiite Muslim.

Currently, General Joseph Aoun, a Maronite Christian and the commander-in-chief of the Lebanese Armed Forces, emerges as the leading candidate. His potential candidacy has gained traction due to the opposition's support and a noticeable shift in Hezbollah's stance, which had previously favored Sleiman Frangieh, an ally of the ousted Syrian leader Bashar Assad. The shift in Hezbollah's position is attributed to its declining political influence following recent conflicts.

Joseph Aoun's candidacy is bolstered by the fact that the Lebanese army remains one of the few institutions that retain public trust. Aoun's military background positions him as a credible candidate capable of addressing the nation's security challenges. Experts believe that his leadership could represent a positive force for many Lebanese citizens.

Regardless of the election's outcome, the necessity for Lebanon to elect a new president is clear. This election represents a critical opportunity for establishing a government that can effectively represent the will of the people, thus paving the way for a functional state. The prospect of electing a president for the first time in two years is a hopeful sign for Lebanon's future.