IEA Forecasts Significant Rise in Global Electricity Consumption by 2027

The global demand for electricity is expected to surge significantly by 2027, driven by the electrification of various sectors, the growth of data centers, the rise of electric vehicles, and industrialization in emerging markets, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA reports that the global electricity consumption will increase by nearly four percent annually over the next few years. This rise in demand can primarily be attributed to the growing industrial electricity use, the increasing demand for air conditioning, and the swift expansion of data centers, particularly in developing nations.

China is projected to lead this trend, with its electricity consumption growing at a pace that outstrips its overall economic growth. In 2024, China's electricity demand surged by seven percent, and it is anticipated to rise by approximately six percent yearly until 2027. This growth is fueled by the rapid expansion of energy-intensive manufacturing sectors, including solar panel production, battery manufacturing, and the development of electric vehicles, alongside the establishment of data centers and 5G networks. Currently, electricity accounts for 28 percent of China's total energy consumption, significantly higher than the United States (22 percent) and the European Union (21 percent).

In the European Union, electricity demand is rebounding from recent economic slowdowns, although it is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels before 2027. The IEA notes a 1.4 percent increase in demand during 2024, largely driven by households and businesses adopting heat pumps and electric vehicles, alongside a higher demand from data centers.

The IEA believes that the growth in low-emission energy sources, particularly renewable energies and nuclear power, will be sufficient to meet the rising global electricity demand over the next three years. It is projected that solar power generation will cover about half of the anticipated increase in electricity demand globally. In 2024, solar power generation in the EU is expected to surpass coal generation, contributing over ten percent to the overall energy mix.

Nuclear power is also expected to experience a revival, with its generation reaching new heights by 2027. This resurgence is attributed to the recovery of nuclear production in France, the restart of reactors in Japan, and the initiation of new reactors in countries such as China, India, and South Korea. The IEA highlights a renewed political interest in nuclear power, signifying its role as a stable component in low-emission energy systems for an increasing number of countries.

Despite the growing significance of renewable energy sources, the IEA does not foresee a decline in the use of fossil fuels by 2027. The global generation of electricity from coal is expected to stagnate, with declines in the EU and the United States offset by increases in India and Southeast Asia. Similarly, the generation of electricity from natural gas is anticipated to grow steadily at about one percent annually until 2027.

Due to the increasing reliance on low-emission energy sources, carbon dioxide emissions from global electricity generation are projected to stabilize in the coming years, following a one percent increase in 2024. However, with emissions reaching approximately 13.8 billion tons in the previous year, the electricity sector remains the largest contributor to emissions across all sectors.