Key Insights on the Upcoming Hamburg Parliament Election

In Hamburg, residents are gearing up to cast their votes in the Bürgerschaft elections, the city's parliament located within its historic Rathaus. Approximately 1.3 million citizens are eligible to participate, with 784 candidates vying for election. Voters will have the opportunity to cast ten votes, divided into five for individual candidates and five for party lists. This method allows voters to distribute their preferences among candidates, with the five candidates receiving the most votes in each electoral district securing a direct seat in the Bürgerschaft.

The upcoming election date has raised questions, particularly as it follows closely on the heels of the recent federal elections. The original schedule for the Bürgerschaft election was established well in advance, but following the collapse of the coalition government in Berlin, the federal election was moved to February 23. This change led the Hamburg CDU to propose rescheduling the local election to encourage higher voter turnout. The SPD and Greens opposed this move, fearing that the negative perception of the federal coalition might influence local sentiments.

As the election approaches, it remains uncertain whether voters will differentiate their choices between the federal and local elections. The SPD's co-chair in Hamburg expressed hope that voters would respond differently at the local level, despite the party's poor performance nationally.

Voter turnout is a significant point of speculation, particularly considering that 80.8% of eligible voters participated in the federal elections. It is unlikely that all these voters will return to the polls for the Bürgerschaft election, which could impact the overall results. The CDU is optimistic that discontented voters will be motivated to participate, potentially shifting support away from the SPD and Greens.

Current polling indicates that the SPD has maintained a relatively stable position, hovering just above 30%. Recent surveys show the party at 33%, with the public expressing strong support for their mayor, Peter Tschentscher. In comparison, the Greens, who have been the SPD's coalition partners, have seen a slight decline in support, dropping to about 16-18% in recent polls.

On the other hand, the CDU, led by Dennis Thering, is hoping to secure a second-place finish and possibly collaborate with the SPD in a coalition government. Following a dismal performance in the last election, where they garnered only 11%, the CDU is eager for a comeback. Meanwhile, the far-right AfD is projected to regain representation in the parliament, while the FDP is expected to remain outside due to low support.

Several key issues dominate the campaign discourse, including transportation, housing, immigration, economic challenges, and education. While the SPD is generally viewed as more competent in economic and educational matters, the CDU has garnered respect for its stance on security and transportation.

Overall, Hamburg's recent developments reflect a growing satisfaction among residents, contributing to the support for the incumbent red-green coalition. The city continues to attract new residents, scores well in educational assessments, and is actively increasing the availability of social housing. However, challenges such as rising rents and traffic congestion remain significant concerns for citizens.

The election process itself has required substantial logistical preparation, with over 44 million printed ballots and a significant number of election workers mobilized to facilitate the voting.