Hamas Under Pressure: Will the Gaza Conflict Erupt Again After Trump's Deadline?

Wed 12th Feb, 2025
The situation between Hamas and Israel remains tense as the militant group delays the release of Israeli hostages, prompting a stern ultimatum from both the United States and Israel. With a deadline set for Saturday, the question arises: will hostilities in Gaza resume? US President Donald Trump has issued a firm deadline to Hamas, demanding the release of all remaining hostages by Saturday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has echoed this warning, stating that if the hostages are not freed, Israeli forces will fully resume military operations. Trump has conveyed a stark message to Hamas, suggesting severe consequences if they fail to comply. Experts caution that the likelihood of Hamas meeting these demands is low. Lazar Berman, a Middle East specialist and correspondent for the Times of Israel, indicates that as time passes, the chances for an agreement diminish. He describes the ultimatum as unrealistic, stating that it is improbable for Hamas to release all hostages by the deadline. This raises the concern of a potential resurgence of conflict. The implications of renewed hostilities would be dire, especially for the hostages in Hamas's custody and for the group itself. While Hamas has released three hostages recently, their conditions were alarming, raising concerns about the treatment they have endured. Berman notes that both Israel and Hamas have a vested interest in continuing negotiations, at least in the initial phase of a potential agreement, which involves a hostage release in exchange for a ceasefire. He elaborates that as long as Hamas continues to release hostages without requiring Israel to commit to an end to the conflict, it serves Israel's interests. Conversely, Hamas lacks favorable options without the hostage agreement. There is a faction within Israel that advocates for a renewed military campaign against Hamas, bolstered by support from the US. This segment believes that now, with a US president willing to overlook the ramifications of military actions in densely populated areas, the opportunity to decisively weaken Hamas may present itself. Berman expresses skepticism about the likelihood of avoiding renewed conflict if Hamas fails to meet the ultimatum and does not release hostages by Saturday. He underscores the prevailing sentiment in Israel that a resumption of hostilities is increasingly probable. The aftermath of previous conflicts has left extensive devastation in Gaza, with Trump characterizing the region as uninhabitable, advocating for the relocation of Palestinian residents and a significant restructuring of the area. Even if Hamas were to release some hostages, the path towards an enduring peace remains uncertain. A sustainable resolution would require Hamas to acknowledge its inability to prevail and be willing to disarm and exile its leadership. Under the current pressure from the US, Hamas is in a precarious position. Trump's statements suggest plans for a comprehensive transformation of Gaza, aiming to replace Hamas's governance and establish a new order in the territory. These developments indicate that Hamas is likely to attempt to assert its authority and position itself as a defender of Palestinian rights against perceived Israeli and US aggression. However, the influence of US policy is increasingly undermining Hamas's standing, pushing the group into a corner as the ultimatum approaches.

More Quick Read Articles »