Experts Warn of Rising Influence of AfD in Local Elections

Recent assessments by researchers from the Moses Mendelssohn Center for European-Jewish Studies indicate a growing potential for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in upcoming local elections, particularly in Brandenburg. This analysis follows the AfD's strong performance in recent municipal elections, where it emerged as the dominant party.

The AfD achieved 25.7 percent of the vote in the June 2024 local elections in Brandenburg, surpassing both the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). This momentum continued in the subsequent state elections in September, where the party secured 29.2 percent of the vote, finishing second behind the SPD. Most recently, in the February Bundestag elections, the AfD again led the field in Brandenburg with 32.5 percent, marking a significant rise in its electoral support.

Researchers Gideon Botsch and Christoph Schulze highlight that the AfD's electoral gains present new opportunities for the party to exert influence at the local level. They note that the robust election results are likely to enable the AfD to build political pressure in various municipalities. The researchers predict that victories for the AfD in future mayoral and district elections are highly probable.

Despite these successes, Botsch and Schulze caution that the AfD has not yet achieved a level of organizational professionalism necessary for sustained success in local governance. Recent votes for district council chairpersons have shown that the party remains unable to secure a majority. However, they have garnered support from other representatives during these votes, indicating the potential for cooperation.

The AfD is currently monitored by Germany's domestic intelligence agency as a suspected right-wing extremist group, reflecting ongoing concerns regarding its ideology and policies. The researchers emphasize the need for vigilance, particularly as the party's influence appears to be on the rise in local political arenas.

As the political landscape evolves, it will be crucial for both citizens and political analysts to closely observe the developments surrounding the AfD and its impact on local governance in Germany.