A comprehensive report by a leading French foreign policy institute has highlighted significant gaps in Europe's ability to defend itself against a possible military offensive from Russia. The analysis, conducted by the Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri), examines the current balance of power between Russia and European nations, raising concerns about the continent's preparedness for a large-scale conflict.

The study identifies two primary factors currently deterring Russia from launching an attack on Europe. Firstly, the unity and internal cohesion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) play a critical role, particularly the security commitment of the United States and the consensus among European countries regarding values and security interests. Secondly, the ongoing Ukrainian resistance continues to occupy Russian military resources, limiting Russia's capacity to open another front or replenish its arsenal efficiently.

Should either of these deterrents weaken--whether through diminished NATO solidarity or a collapse in Ukrainian resistance--the report warns that Russia could reconsider the costs and benefits of pursuing open aggression against European states. Analysts emphasize that such a scenario would expose Europe's current military limitations.

Imbalance in Military Strength and Mobilization

The report underscores that Europe, as it stands, lacks the military strength required to win a protracted ground conflict with Russia. Estimates suggest that Russia maintains a force of approximately 650,000 to 950,000 active military personnel, compared to the roughly 750,000 troops available to European NATO and EU members combined, excluding Turkey. Additionally, Russia possesses greater capacity to mobilize and deploy its forces rapidly, while Europe faces challenges due to political divisions and less robust troop transport infrastructure.

The study points out that the defense of Europe would likely rely heavily on just a handful of nations, including Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Poland, Italy, and Spain. Many other European countries have limited military resources, often unable to contribute more than a few battalions each for collective defense efforts.

Shortfalls in Armaments and Infrastructure

Beyond personnel numbers, the report notes that Europe suffers from deficiencies in key areas such as artillery, long- and short-range weapons systems, and drones. Electronic warfare capabilities are also less developed within European armed forces. Furthermore, both Europe and Russia face logistical constraints, but Russia is perceived as better positioned to mitigate these through alternative supply and repair options.

Despite being numerically inferior, European forces are generally assessed as having higher levels of training, partially offsetting the disparity. However, the study cautions that training alone is insufficient to counterbalance Russia's quantitative and mobilization advantages. The authors recommend that European nations invest in expanding and modernizing their arsenals and capabilities to close these gaps.

Strategic Recommendations for European Security

The report advocates for Europe to assume greater responsibility for its own defense. It warns that, in the event of a reduced U.S. commitment to European security, the continent would be unable to replace American support with purely European resources in the medium term. The study suggests that Europe should focus its defensive strategy on areas where it maintains advantages, such as air, maritime, space, and potentially cyber operations.

According to the Ifri analysis, Europe possesses the economic resources, military potential, and technological skills necessary to build a credible deterrent against Russia by 2030, provided there is sufficient political will. The report concludes that closing current capability gaps and strengthening European unity will be essential steps to ensure long-term security and stability in the face of evolving threats.