Fact Check on the TV Debate: Where Merz and Scholz Stand on Migration Issues

In a heated exchange during their first televised debate ahead of the federal elections, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and CDU candidate Friedrich Merz focused intensely on migration, presenting various statistics. This article examines the accuracy of their claims.

Claim by Scholz: His administration has facilitated 40,000 deportations.

Fact Check: This assertion aligns with data from the Federal Ministry of the Interior (BMI), which reported 43,500 deportations at German borders as of late January. These deportations have significantly increased due to border controls implemented since October 2023.

Claim by Scholz: The number of individuals entering Germany irregularly decreased by 100,000 last year, representing a decline of over one-third.

Fact Check: This statement is confirmed by BMI, which indicated a decrease of 111,000 asylum applications from 2023 to 2024, translating to a 34% reduction in irregular migration. The total asylum applications in 2024 stood at approximately 251,000, down from nearly 352,000 the previous year.

Claim by Scholz: January 2025 saw the lowest number of asylum applications since 2016.

Fact Check: This claim is inaccurate. In January 2025, there were 16,594 asylum applications, which is not the lowest recorded during Scholz's term. Previous months, including December 2024 and April 2022, had even fewer applications. Historical data also shows lower monthly figures during the tenure of former Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Claim by Scholz: Deportations have increased by 70% since he took office.

Fact Check: In 2020, there were 10,800 deportations, which rose to 11,982 in 2021. The numbers have continued to rise, with 18,384 deportations recorded from January to November 2024. While there has been a nearly 70% increase since 2020, Scholz only assumed office in December 2021, and the real increase since then is about 53%.

Claim by Merz: In just four days, Germany sees as many new arrivals as the total monthly deportations, amounting to 240,000 last year.

Fact Check: Merz's figure of 240,000 is roughly accurate, reflecting the nearly 230,000 first-time asylum applications reported by the BAMF. On average, there were about 629 new applications daily compared to 18,384 deportations over eleven months.

Claim by Merz: Over two million irregular migrants have entered Germany during Scholz's term.

Fact Check: This statement lacks clarity. Data from the Federal Police indicates that unauthorized entries from December 2021 to January 2025 were significantly lower than two million, with approximately 313,000 recorded. The total number of first-time asylum applications during this period was around 805,000.