Climate Diplomacy Progress Stalled at UN Conference in Bonn

The recent UN climate conference held at the World Conference Center in Bonn highlighted the ongoing challenges in global climate diplomacy. Despite the significance of the discussions, many critical issues remain unresolved as nations prepare for the upcoming climate summit in Belém, Brazil, this November.

During the opening of this year's interim climate conference, UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell emphasized the importance of the representatives' actions, stating that the outcomes of the next ten days could profoundly affect billions of people worldwide. However, as the conference concluded, there was little evidence of the 'real differences' that had been promised. Instead, numerous unresolved issues lingered, setting the stage for continued negotiations in Belém.

The annual conference in Bonn aims to lay the groundwork for the subsequent climate summit, addressing agenda disputes early on and preparing the path for potential compromises. This year, however, tensions were notably heightened, according to representatives from various environmental organizations. Many key topics that were not resolved during the previous summit in Baku remain contentious, which will necessitate further dialogue in Belém.

Challenges surrounding greenhouse gas emissions continue to escalate. A report presented by the Indicators of Global Climate Change initiative revealed that the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius could be exhausted within three years at the current rate of emissions. Following the 2023 UN summit in Dubai, it became clear that current global climate efforts are insufficient to meet the 1.5-degree target established in the Paris Agreement. The global community responded to this finding by agreeing to a course correction that includes a commitment to phase out fossil fuels and triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. However, the means to achieve these goals remain a point of contention among the 197 participating countries.

Progress at the Bonn conference was minimal, with many nations, particularly from the Arab world and large developing economies, reluctant to make commitments. Developing countries are linking their climate action pledges to increased financing from developed nations, which are currently hesitant to engage further in financial discussions. Last year's summit in Baku had already established a framework to increase climate financing from $100 billion to $300 billion by 2035 while acknowledging that this figure is insufficient. Moreover, a roadmap was requested to elevate total climate financing to $1.3 trillion, with no concrete commitments currently in place for increased support between 2025 and 2035.

Furthermore, the Baku agreement left ambiguous how the $300 billion would be sourced from public and private financing, raising concerns among developing nations that their needs for climate adaptation might be overlooked if private investors dominate. Countries in the global south have called for a formal agenda item in Belém that mandates direct financial commitments from industrialized nations. The European Union, however, has resisted this proposal, leading to a two-day stalemate in Bonn negotiations. Ultimately, the concerns raised by developing nations will be compiled into a report to inform further discussions in Belém.

Many experts consider the upcoming COP 30 summit in November to be a pivotal moment in climate diplomacy since the Paris Agreement in 2015. While slow negotiations in Bonn are not unprecedented, the urgency for actionable results in Belém is critical. There, nations will review their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), detailing how they plan to contribute to the Paris Agreement's goals. Despite a deadline for the new plans having passed in February, only 23 out of nearly 200 countries have submitted their NDCs. Alarmingly, these submissions represent only a fraction of global emissions, with major emitters like the EU and China not yet having submitted their plans, and less than half of the submitted plans addressing a transition away from fossil fuels.

Discussions in Bonn also revolved around how to respond to the anticipated disappointing assessments of these NDCs. The Brazilian presidency has shown reluctance to include discussions about potential shortcomings on the official agenda, aiming to ensure the summit's success. However, the effectiveness of global climate diplomacy will ultimately depend on how these weak plans are addressed, as the efforts made by 2035 will critically determine whether the 1.5-degree limit can be maintained. Climate experts warn that reversing a temperature increase, even by 0.1 degrees, would require removing 200 billion tons of CO2 from the atmosphere--more than five times the current annual emissions.