AfD Maintains Lead as Schwarz-Rot Coalition Hits Record Low Approval

The political landscape in Germany has shifted dramatically as the latest poll indicates a significant decline in support for the ruling Schwarz-Rot coalition, composed of the CDU/CSU and SPD. According to a recent survey conducted by the polling agency Insa, the coalition's approval ratings have plummeted to their lowest point since taking office in May. Together, the coalition parties now command only 38 percent of voter support, a stark six percentage points away from achieving a parliamentary majority.

If a federal election were held today, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) would emerge as the largest party, maintaining a steady 26 percent approval rating. The CDU, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has seen a slight decline of one percentage point, bringing its support down to 24 percent. Meanwhile, the SPD, led by co-leader and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, has also lost one percentage point, now standing at 14 percent.

In an interesting turn, the Left party has gained one percentage point, surpassing the Greens, which have dropped by one percentage point to 11 percent. The smaller parties, including the BSW and FDP, remain stagnant, each holding only four percent of voter support and continuing to face the risk of not entering the Bundestag. Additionally, five percent of respondents indicated they would vote for other parties.

Insa's chief, Hermann Binkert, noted that the coalition of the CDU and SPD has lost approximately seven percentage points since the last federal election conducted on February 23, 2025, representing a loss of about one in six voters. He emphasized the challenge facing the coalition, as they are now significantly distanced from a parliamentary majority.

The current political climate suggests that the most viable path to a governing coalition without the AfD would be a so-called Kenya coalition, combining the CDU, SPD, and Greens, which together account for 49 percent of the vote.

Recently, Chancellor Merz's cabinet concluded a two-day retreat in Berlin, where they unveiled a 'Modernization Agenda' aimed at strengthening the country's competitiveness and initiating a comprehensive renewal of state and administrative functions.

It is important to note that polling results are inherently variable and influenced by numerous factors, including declining party loyalty and increasingly spontaneous electoral decisions, which complicate the interpretation of survey data. Ultimately, polls reflect public sentiment at a given moment and should not be misconstrued as direct predictions of electoral outcomes.