Economists Identify EUR2.2 Billion Annual Shortfall in AfD Policy Proposals

Economic experts have identified a significant gap in the financial planning of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's policy proposals for the state of Saxony-Anhalt. According to a recent analysis by the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Halle (IWH), the AfD's election platform would create a budget deficit of at least EUR2.2 billion per year if implemented without additional borrowing.

The analysis examined 136 policy measures from the AfD's manifesto. Of these, 28 could be quantified using official data. The associated costs for these measures alone total approximately EUR1.6 billion annually. In addition, the state budget already includes EUR877 million in new debt, which the AfD proposes to eliminate. To achieve this without resorting to further borrowing, alternative funding sources would be required, raising the total annual financial requirement to around EUR2.5 billion.

On the revenue side, the researchers identified potential savings of only about EUR243 million, even under generous assumptions. As a result, less than ten percent of the additional financial needs would be covered, leaving a substantial funding gap. The projected deficit corresponds to roughly a quarter of Saxony-Anhalt's annual tax income.

Furthermore, the IWH warns that the AfD's planned strict immigration policies could have serious negative repercussions for the region's economy. The think tank's president expressed concerns that a restrictive approach to immigration may exacerbate existing shortages of skilled workers in sectors such as healthcare and construction. This could lead to a scenario in which professionals, including doctors and care workers, choose to work in other federal states, intensifying the shortage of qualified personnel in Saxony-Anhalt.

The AfD, however, argues that its policies are designed to incentivize German workers and reduce dependency on foreign labor. Party representatives have stated that their proposals are intended as part of a long-term strategy to revitalize the state and that detailed measures will be implemented over time.

The debate over the AfD's fiscal plans comes at a critical period ahead of the upcoming regional election. Recent polling data indicates strong support for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, with the party polling at 42 percent, ahead of the CDU at 22 percent and The Left at 13 percent. Other parties, including the SPD and BSW, trail behind.

The findings from IWH underline the challenges of implementing expansive policy commitments without clear financial backing. Economists suggest that, in the absence of new debt, only symbolic measures may be feasible. The potential economic impact of decreased migration--especially in a region already facing demographic and labor market pressures--adds further complexity to the debate surrounding the AfD's proposals.