Weather in autumn and winter: Expert with unusual conclusion

Photo by Filip BunkensThe weather in Germany this year has been fairly awful. Instead of sunshine, the sky was often cloudy. Precipitation was frequent and not infrequently heavy. Extremes such as thunderstorms with gale-force winds, heavy rain, lightning and thunder were not uncommon. And temperatures hardly get up to speed either. A weather turnaround in summer is not in sight.

The end of August is already looking very autumnal. Even though it is not yet really predictable how the autumn and winter weather will turn out in Germany, meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S. have ventured a first chart for the two seasons.

Weather expert Dominik Jung of wetter.net took a closer look at the U.S. model. "These are all scientific things. These forecasts are feasible, but no one should base their life on them," warns the meteorologist.

Still, the overseas weather experts are setting an initial trend with their forecasts. "We can only try to estimate: How will the months go?". The answer: pretty average. Which for Germany, in view of the past years, rather means: unusual. After all, September, October and November are supposed to be neither too warm nor too cold. This means that temperatures in fall and winter seem to settle in at the long-term average.

Winter ends in Germany with normal temperatures

December and January will be 0.5 to one degree too warm compared to the climate average, reads Jung. Exceptions are the Baltic Sea coast (December), the outer northwest (January) and Schleswig-Holstein (December and January). At the end of the winter in Germany, February should follow, which will also bring normal temperatures.

Jung looks with concern at the NOAA model from the U.S.: "Normal months that were not too warm or not too cold haven't really existed for a long time. Often we were clearly too warm - above the climate mean".The weather expert concludes, "That's why it could come out that we'll find the fall and winter too cold. Because we are no longer used to these normal months in recent years. For man is known to be a creature of habit.

According to Jung, it is a "very exciting development, which is indicated". In addition, autumn and winter are expected to be "neither too wet nor too dry". That would be "very positive for a real winter here in the country. The past few years have always brought a very wet winter." At least, that is how it has always been forecast.

"That often spoke for the classic westerly winter with the mild air masses from the Atlantic. But that doesn't seem to be the case this time," the weather expert explains. So everything is a bit different this year.However, Jung does not forget to emphasize at the end of his remarks that these prospects are still "not a classic weather forecast. Jung prefers to call it "climatological monthly trends.



Photo by Filip Bunkens

 


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