Public Opinion on Merz's Coalition Options Ahead of 2025 Elections

As Germany prepares for its upcoming Bundestag election on February 23, 2025, the political landscape is shifting significantly following the collapse of the previous coalition government made up of the SPD, Greens, and FDP. This early election comes in the wake of a failed confidence vote for Chancellor Olaf Scholz on December 16, 2024, which led to the dissolution of the Bundestag by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Recent polling conducted by the INSA research institute for the Bild newspaper indicates that the CDU/CSU remains the leading political force in the country. The survey sought to determine which parties the CDU/CSU should consider for a governing coalition.

According to the findings, 32% of respondents favor a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. Support for this potential alliance is notably higher among CDU/CSU supporters, with 42% endorsing a black-red coalition, while an impressive 80% of SPD voters also express their approval.

Interestingly, 26% of those surveyed would support a partnership between the CDU/CSU and the AfD. Despite this level of backing, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has categorically ruled out any collaboration with the far-right party. In contrast, only 17% of respondents would favor a coalition with the Greens, and 16% are in favor of joining forces with the FDP.

A significant portion of the electorate, approximately one-third, believes that the SPD and Greens should firmly reject any cooperation with the CDU/CSU, advocating for a so-called 'firewall' against the party. Conversely, 43% of respondents indicate that they believe there should be an openness to collaboration between the SPD, Greens, and the CDU/CSU.

The results of this survey highlight the complex dynamics of German politics as the nation approaches the election. With the CDU/CSU positioned as the leading party, how they navigate coalition negotiations will be crucial for shaping the future of the government.