Negotiation Strategies: U.S. and Russia's Diverging Diplomatic Approaches

The dynamics between the United States and Russia have shifted significantly, revealing contrasting strategies within the U.S. administration regarding foreign policy. While some officials aim to use President Trump's favorable stance towards Russia to create a rift between Moscow and Beijing, others, dubbed 'dealmakers', are gaining influence and may be swaying the direction of U.S.-Russia relations.

Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, appeared visibly frustrated during a recent Oval Office meeting where President Trump and Vice President J. D. Vance engaged in a public confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Rubio, known for his hawkish foreign policy views, seemed to question how he found himself in such a compromising situation, especially as he later defended Trump while criticizing Zelensky.

In late February, a crucial resource agreement intended for signing at the White House was thrown into jeopardy due to complications from the Ukrainian side. Rubio and his allies, including National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg, are part of a group attempting to leverage Trump's unconventional diplomatic tactics to serve U.S. interests. However, they find themselves at odds with the 'dealmakers' who prioritize transactional relations over strategic stability.

This internal conflict is reminiscent of historical diplomatic maneuvers, particularly the strategies employed by former presidents like Nixon and Kissinger. The current approach, referred to as 'reverse Kissinger', aims to exploit the geopolitical tensions created by Putin's invasion of Ukraine, intending to drive a wedge between Russia and China.

Rubio and Waltz are particularly concerned about the growing alliance between China and Russia, which they perceive as a significant threat. Both officials have been vocal about their objections to Trump's lenient view of Putin, believing that it undermines U.S. interests. They argue that while they cannot alter Trump's perspective, they can still utilize it to achieve their own goals.

In recent discussions with a Russian delegation led by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Riyadh, U.S. officials sought to identify 'extraordinary opportunities' for future partnerships should the conflict in Ukraine reach a resolution. Rubio emphasized the potential benefits of engaging with Russia, provided it aligns with U.S. interests and does not fracture alliances with Western partners.

Leading the 'dealmaker' faction is Steve Witkoff, a long-time associate of Trump from the New York real estate scene. His role in the administration is significant, as he aims to ensure that Trump's agenda is not hindered by conventional diplomatic protocols.

Witkoff's recent activities include negotiating a prisoner exchange with Russia, showcasing his direct engagement with the Kremlin. His connections extend to influential figures within Russia's economic landscape, such as Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), who is tasked with fostering business relations between the U.S. and Russia.

These engagements highlight a strategic effort by the Kremlin to appeal to Trump's business-oriented mindset, focusing on potential economic collaborations rather than political disagreements. Dmitriev's approach is to present opportunities for U.S. investments in Russia, framing sanctions and current tensions as obstacles to mutual prosperity.

As Witkoff and his associates continue to build these connections, it remains to be seen how this internal struggle within the U.S. administration will shape future relations with Russia. The contrasting approaches of strategic planning versus deal-making could significantly influence U.S. foreign policy in the coming years.