Union Maintains Lead in Polls as SPD Struggles

As the countdown to the federal elections continues, political parties in Germany are fiercely competing for every percentage point in voter support. Recent polling data indicates that the Union remains the clear frontrunner, despite ongoing national debates and criticism. A new survey conducted by YouGov shows that 29% of respondents plan to vote for the CDU/CSU, the same percentage as the previous week. In stark contrast, the SPD is currently polling at 16%, reflecting a two-point decline.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is tracking at 21%, a slight drop of one percentage point. The Greens hold steady at 12%. The Left party maintains its position at 6%, which could enable it to secure seats in the Bundestag. Meanwhile, the coalition led by Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) has lost one percentage point, now sitting precariously at 5%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) remains below the five percent threshold with 4%.

In a similar survey by Forsa for RTL/ntv, the Union has rebounded slightly from a dip, also reporting 29%. The SPD's numbers remain unchanged at 16%, consistent with the YouGov data. The Greens have risen to 14%, while the AfD is at 20%. The Left has gained one point to reach 6%, indicating a potential return to the Bundestag. Both the FDP and BSW remain stagnant at 4% and are not projected to enter the parliament based on current figures.

The YouGov survey, conducted between February 7 and February 10, 2025, included responses from 2,083 participants. It is important to note that results do not account for any shifts that may arise from the televised debate between Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz held on February 9, 2025. The data collected is representative of the German population aged 18 and older.

In the Forsa survey, conducted from February 4 to February 10 with 2,502 respondents, trends appear consistent with the YouGov findings.

As the election date approaches, discussions surrounding key fiscal policies, including the proposed wealth tax, are gaining traction among voters. A majority of readers in a recent election compass expressed support for utilizing a wealth tax to address the investment backlog in Germany. The debate continues on the merits and drawbacks of such a policy, as well as the stances of various political parties.

It is important to recognize that polling data is inherently subject to uncertainties. Factors such as declining party loyalty and increasingly last-minute voting decisions complicate the data weighting process for polling organizations. Polls merely reflect public sentiment at the time of the survey and should not be interpreted as definitive predictions for election outcomes.