Ukraine Seeks Consensus on Peace Plan with Western Allies Within a Month

The Ukrainian government is working to coordinate a definitive peace proposal with its principal international partners, including the United States and selected European nations, by the end of January. Ukrainian leadership has indicated that the negotiation team is preparing to host discussions with delegations from the US and the European 'Coalition of the Willing' in Ukraine over the coming weeks. The primary objective of these talks is to draft a unified document reflecting the collective stance of Ukraine, the US, and European allies as a basis for subsequent negotiations with Russia.

The proposed plan is built upon the framework of a 28-point strategy introduced by the United States in November, following discussions between Washington and Moscow. This document, which initially mirrored several Russian demands, has since been revised through consultations among the US, Ukraine, and European partners, reducing it to 20 points. However, significant issues remain unresolved, particularly regarding future territorial boundaries and the establishment of Western security guarantees for Ukraine.

Key among the ongoing discussions are the terms and duration of security assurances. The US has proposed security guarantees for a period of 15 years, while Ukrainian officials are seeking commitments extending up to 50 years. Ukrainian authorities emphasize that genuine conflict resolution cannot be achieved without robust and enduring security arrangements, underscoring the continued risk of renewed aggression from neighboring states. The lifting of martial law in Ukraine, which would pave the way for presidential and parliamentary elections, is contingent upon the conclusion of the conflict and the provision of reliable security guarantees. According to the current plan, elections are intended to be organized promptly once hostilities cease.

Another major point of negotiation involves the mechanism for approving any eventual peace deal. The Ukrainian leadership has stated that the finalized 20-point plan should be subject to a national referendum, especially if it involves territorial concessions. Organizing such a public vote would require a ceasefire lasting at least 60 days. This condition stands in contrast to the US position, which does not emphasize a time-limited ceasefire, aligning more closely with Russia's stance that rules out temporary halts in fighting. Ukrainian officials express concern that an absence of a ceasefire could allow Russia to prolong negotiations and attempt further territorial gains during ongoing military operations.

The logistics of holding a referendum remain uncertain, particularly regarding participation by citizens residing in regions currently under Russian control. Given these complexities, the likelihood of conducting such a vote in the near future is considered low, and the precise path toward ending the conflict remains undetermined.

On the Russian side, officials continue to insist on the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from parts of the Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control. The Russian government has reiterated its demands and signaled opposition to the approach outlined by Ukrainian authorities. Russian leadership has recently indicated little expectation of a voluntary withdrawal by Ukrainian troops, expressing confidence in the ability to secure the remaining territory through military means. However, military analysts note that capturing heavily fortified urban centers in Donetsk is unlikely to occur within a short time frame.

Ukrainian authorities have firmly dismissed any proposals that would involve conceding control over major cities in Donetsk, stating that offers not aligned with Ukraine's interests will be rejected, regardless of their source. Current indications suggest that key international partners, including the United States, have not yet fully endorsed Ukraine's refusal to cede these territories.

As discussions continue, the detailed process and conditions for reaching a comprehensive peace agreement remain in flux, with critical issues such as security guarantees, territorial integrity, and the involvement of the Ukrainian populace yet to be conclusively addressed.