Turkey's Aspirations: Troop Deployment to Ukraine and a Vision of European Superpower Status

In a significant shift in foreign policy, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is preparing to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, signaling a deeper engagement with Europe amidst the shifting dynamics of the ongoing conflict. This initiative comes in the wake of changing attitudes from the United States under President Donald Trump, which could pave the way for a renewed partnership between Turkey and the European Union.

Recent developments have revealed that Turkish officials are expressing surprise at the reaction to Trump's controversial foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine. Historically, Turkey has viewed the United States as an unreliable ally, and the prospect of the U.S. surrendering Ukraine to Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised concerns not only in Turkey but across Europe as well.

Tapping into this crisis, Turkish politicians are seizing the opportunity to redefine their relationship with Europe, particularly in the context of security. Erdogan's government has been active in the Middle East, leveraging its influence following the conflict in Syria. Now, it appears Turkey is acknowledging its potential role as a key player in European security.

Evidence of this evolving dynamic is apparent as Erdogan engages with European leaders. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended a crisis summit on Ukraine convened by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, just days after a tense meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. officials. Turkey has joined the 'Coalition of the Willing,' spearheaded by Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Following a summit organized by the EU, Erdogan indicated the possibility of deploying Turkish troops in Ukraine. Military leaders from over 30 nations convened in Paris to discuss the security situation in Ukraine and the establishment of an international peacekeeping force, a concept supported by France and the UK. Erdogan has also been fostering relationships with other significant nations, including Poland, where Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited Ankara to discuss security matters.

The role Turkey will play in the Ukraine conflict, however, is contingent upon Trump's future strategies. While it is still early to define the specifics of a European peacekeeping force, Turkey's involvement might be pivotal in ensuring compliance with any agreements reached. Historically, Turkey has supported Ukraine against Russian aggression while maintaining diplomatic channels with Moscow, positioning it as a potential mediator acceptable to both sides.

Turkey's military experience in various conflicts, including Syria and Libya, demonstrates its capability to engage in peacekeeping operations. Ankara's military has previously collaborated with Russian forces in Syria, proving its adaptability in conflict zones. This history may bolster Turkey's acceptance by both Ukraine and Russia in any peacekeeping role.

The Turkish government hopes that its involvement in Ukraine will enhance its relations with the EU, potentially leading to a broader security partnership aimed at countering Russian influence and ensuring stability in Europe. Additionally, Turkey is keen on renegotiating its customs union agreement with the EU, originally established in 1995, to expand its trade benefits.

As European nations prepare to increase military spending, Turkish defense companies are looking to capitalize on potential contracts. With the EU contemplating joint defense initiatives, Turkish firms like Aselsan and Baykar are positioning themselves to participate in these emerging opportunities.

Moreover, Turkish officials are advocating for visa liberalization for Turkish citizens, a contentious issue that has stalled progress in EU-Turkey relations. The 2016 refugee deal, which involved Turkey hosting millions of Syrian refugees in exchange for financial support from the EU, included promises of easier travel for Turkish citizens, which have yet to materialize.

After more than 15 years of stalled EU accession talks, Ankara is now exploring the prospect of a privileged partnership with Europe, suggesting a shift away from the long-held goal of full EU membership. This evolving relationship could include enhanced cooperation in security matters, defense procurement, and the reconstruction of war-torn regions.

Ultimately, Turkey seeks to redefine its position within Europe, moving from a candidate country to a strategic partner. As European dynamics shift under pressures from both Putin and Trump, Turkey has a unique opportunity to assert its influence and strengthen ties with Europe.