The Influence of the Elderly and Wealthy in German Elections

On Sunday, nearly 60 million citizens are set to participate in the election of a new Bundestag in Germany. Among these, more than 40 percent are aged 60 and over, a demographic that tends to vote more frequently than their younger counterparts. Economic status also plays a significant role in voter turnout.

This election marks the 21st instance in which citizens of the Federal Republic are called to cast their votes. However, not all of the 84 million residents are eligible to vote; according to the Federal Statistical Office, 59.2 million people are entitled to participate, which is slightly less than in the previous two elections.

Demographic analysis reveals that the age group of 60 and above comprises 42.2 percent of those eligible to vote, a stark contrast to their representation in the overall population, which is less than 30 percent. The largest voting bloc, at 23.2 percent, consists of those aged 70 and above. Comparatively, only 13.2 percent of eligible voters are under 30 years old.

Despite a significant number of individuals having reached adulthood, not all are granted the right to vote. Among the over 69 million adults, only 85 percent are eligible according to the Microcensus, which accounts for the over 17 million residents with immigration backgrounds. This group includes individuals who have immigrated or whose parents have immigrated since 1950. Only 41.4 percent of those with immigration backgrounds are eligible to vote, meaning approximately 9.96 million adults are unable to influence the composition of the next Bundestag.

Furthermore, the right to vote in Germany is contingent upon citizenship, affecting both active and passive voting rights. Only citizens are permitted to run for office as candidates.

While many eligible citizens do not exercise their voting rights, historical trends show a decline in voter turnout since the 1970s, when participation rates exceeded 90 percent. In recent elections, however, turnout has seen a slight increase, with 76.6 percent of the electorate participating in the 2021 elections. Gender-wise, participation rates were fairly equal.

Age differences significantly impact voting behavior. In the 2021 elections, 72 percent of voters under 30 participated, marking a ten-point increase from previous years, largely attributed to heightened awareness around climate issues. However, voters aged 60 and above demonstrated an even higher turnout, with 80 percent of those aged 60 to 69 and 75 percent of those aged 70 and older casting their ballots.

The voting behavior of older generations is becoming increasingly diverse, with the post-war generation exhibiting different political inclinations compared to the more conservative 'Adenauer Generation.'

Socioeconomic factors also heavily influence voter participation. Individuals from lower-income brackets and those with less education are less likely to vote, contrasting sharply with their wealthier and more educated counterparts. Historically, in the 1972 elections, voter turnout among the lowest and highest income groups was nearly equal, but this gap has widened over the decades. According to political scientist Frank Decker, the poorest 20 percent of voters were over five times more likely to abstain than the wealthiest 20 percent in the last election.

For example, in Munich-Land, nearly 85 percent of eligible voters participated, while in Duisburg II, a socioeconomically challenged district, only about 63 percent voted. Decker warns that this growing divide may lead to a vicious cycle where the interests of lower-income individuals are underrepresented in parliament, further discouraging them from voting in the future.