The Implications of Tactical Voting: Should You Choose a Smaller Party?

As Germany approaches the 2025 federal elections, many voters find themselves grappling with uncertainty regarding their choices. One pertinent question arises: Is it worthwhile to tactically support a smaller party in hopes of influencing the composition of future coalitions?

With elections scheduled for Sunday, February 23, at 6 PM, a significant number of voters have already cast their ballots via mail. However, a sizable portion remains undecided. The performance of smaller parties is particularly critical, as they hover around the crucial five percent threshold in recent polls.

The initial results of the election could yield surprising outcomes. According to the latest ZDF Politbarometer, nearly 28 percent of voters were still uncertain about their choices just days before the election. Despite this uncertainty, recent polling trends indicate a consistent lead for the Union party, which is projected to secure around 30 percent of the vote, potentially positioning Friedrich Merz as the next Chancellor of Germany.

In the current political landscape, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) follows closely behind the Union. However, mainstream parties are reluctant to form a coalition with the AfD. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens are polling at 15 and 13 percent, respectively, indicating a relatively stable hierarchy among the larger parties.

Nonetheless, the dynamics shift when considering smaller parties. Recent polling data suggests that parties like the Left, Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Basic Democratic Party (BSW) may cross the five percent threshold, which complicates coalition negotiations. The Left party has recently garnered as much as nine percent support in one survey, while the FDP and BSW are fluctuating around the threshold.

Interestingly, the surge in smaller parties seems to be a result of voters migrating away from smaller or protest parties towards more established ones. This shift indicates that voters are seeking greater assurances of representation in the Bundestag. As of late January, the aggregated polling for these smaller parties was around ten percent, but recent trends show them slipping back to five percent.

The implications of tactical voting for smaller parties are significant, particularly for the FDP. Historically, the Union encouraged voters to support the FDP to secure a favorable coalition. However, Merz has recently discouraged this practice, aiming to consolidate support for his own party. This shift is partly attributed to electoral reforms that have altered the significance of the second vote. With the recent changes limiting the Bundestag to 630 seats, the importance of the second vote has increased, making tactical voting more complex.

Given the current political landscape, Merz is faced with formidable coalition options. Collaborations with the AfD, BSW, or the Left seem unlikely, leaving the SPD, Greens, and FDP as the primary potential partners. Merz's inclination to work with the Greens contrasts with the refusal from Markus Söder and the CSU leadership.

The rise of smaller parties has already impacted coalition possibilities. Current polling indicates that Merz may not be able to secure a majority with the SPD, and a partnership with the Greens may also fall short. This situation suggests that a viable coalition could be a tripartite alliance involving the SPD, Union, and Greens, particularly if the FDP fails to secure parliamentary representation.

For voters considering tactical voting, the landscape appears to favor the FDP, especially if they seek a coalition involving Merz and the SPD or the Greens. However, the FDP has ruled out collaboration with the Greens, leaving Merz with limited options: a coalition with the SPD and Greens or one involving the FDP and SPD.

For those wary of a repeat of the chaotic coalition dynamics witnessed under the previous government, opting for a more streamlined choice may be prudent. In such a scenario, voting directly for the Union, SPD, or Greens might yield the most straightforward path to a stable government.