Soviet Venus Probe Set to Fall to Earth After 50 Years

In an unexpected turn of events, a failed Soviet space mission aimed at exploring Venus is predicted to plunge uncontrollably to Earth within days. The capsule, known as Kosmos 482, was launched on March 31, 1972, but never left Earth's orbit due to a launch vehicle malfunction. Unlike its sister probe, Venera 8, which successfully landed on Venus and transmitted valuable data back to Earth, Kosmos 482 has remained in orbit for over five decades.

Satellite expert Marco Langbroek recently alerted the scientific community to the impending descent of the capsule, suggesting that it could impact the Earth's surface instead of disintegrating in the atmosphere. Current estimates indicate a potential crash date around May 10, 2025, although there is a considerable variance of approximately 57 hours in either direction. This uncertainty means that the capsule could land anywhere between 52 degrees latitude, affecting regions in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, but experts believe the risk of harm is minimal.

The object in question is part of the Venera program, which was developed by the Soviet Union to investigate Venus. While Kosmos 482 remained in orbit, it was designed with a heat shield capable of withstanding extreme atmospheric pressure and temperatures on Venus. This durability raises the likelihood that it will survive its descent through Earth's atmosphere and reach the ground intact. Importantly, the capsule does not carry any radioactive materials, which mitigates risks to populated areas, although any potential landing site is likely to be in the ocean.

Due to the uncontrollable nature of this descent, the capsule could theoretically land anywhere on Earth. However, since oceans cover a significant portion of the planet's surface, the chances of it landing in water are high. Uncontrolled falls of space debris are not uncommon; for instance, just a year ago, a decommissioned battery pack from the International Space Station fell to Earth, with a fragment damaging a house in Florida. The Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK) has issued warnings about the possibility of impact in Germany but has not specifically commented on the Kosmos 482 capsule.

As experts continue to monitor the situation, the descent of Kosmos 482 serves as a reminder of the enduring legacy of space exploration and the remnants of past missions that linger in Earth's orbit.