Projected Global Parkinson's Disease Cases to Exceed 25 Million by 2050

According to a recent modeling study published in The British Medical Journal, the number of individuals living with Parkinson's disease worldwide is expected to surpass 25 million by the year 2050. This represents a staggering increase of 112% from figures recorded in 2021, primarily driven by an aging population.

The study indicates that the overall prevalence of Parkinson's disease is anticipated to rise by 76% per 100,000 population. When adjusted for age differences, the increase is projected to be around 55%. The highest rates of this neurological condition are expected to occur in East Asia.

Researchers conducted this study to fill the gap in data concerning future prevalence rates of Parkinson's disease across various countries and regions. Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, they estimated the age, sex, and year-specific prevalence in 195 nations and territories from 2022 to 2050. The findings suggest that by 2050, 25.2 million people will be living with Parkinson's disease across all ages and genders combined.

All regions studied are set to experience an increase in cases, with particularly pronounced growth projected in moderately developed countries on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) scale. The primary driver of this increase is identified as population aging, accounting for 89% of the rise, while population growth contributes an additional 20%.

By 2050, researchers forecast that the all-age prevalence of Parkinson's disease will reach approximately 267 cases per 100,000 individuals, consisting of 243 cases for women and 295 for men. East Asia is expected to have the highest number of cases, estimated at 10.9 million, followed by South Asia with 6.8 million. Conversely, Oceania and Australasia are predicted to report the fewest cases.

The most dramatic increase in cases is anticipated in western Sub-Saharan Africa, with an estimated rise of 292%, while central and eastern Europe are projected to see the smallest increase of 28%, attributed to negative population growth and lower contributions from aging.

Individuals aged over 80 are expected to experience the highest prevalence rates, which could reach 2,087 cases per 100,000 by 2050. Furthermore, the disparity in cases between men and women is predicted to widen, increasing from a ratio of 1.46 in 2021 to 1.64 in 2050.

The study also suggested that enhancing physical activity levels may help reduce future Parkinson's disease cases, while cessation of smoking could inadvertently lead to an increase in prevalence. However, these findings come with caution, as the study has limitations, including the availability and quality of data in certain regions and the inability to accurately predict prevalence among various ethnic groups or assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite these limitations, the researchers believe this study offers the first comprehensive projections of Parkinson's disease prevalence at global, regional, and national levels until 2050. They conclude by emphasizing the urgent need for future research focused on developing innovative treatments, including drug therapies, gene engineering, and cell replacement techniques, aimed at altering the disease's trajectory and enhancing patient quality of life.

A related editorial in the journal welcomed these findings but advocated for the adoption of more sophisticated forecasting techniques to better equip healthcare systems, policymakers, and researchers with reliable data for long-term planning. They stress the importance of employing methods that adequately reflect the complexities of chronic disease progression, ultimately leading to more effective interventions and improved patient outcomes.