Nvidia Faces $15 Billion Revenue Loss Due to China Export Restrictions

Nvidia, a leading technology company known for its graphics processing units (GPUs), is anticipating a significant financial setback due to the recent extension of U.S. export restrictions on technology products to China.

Company CEO Jensen Huang has estimated that Nvidia could lose around $15 billion in revenue over the coming quarters. This forecast comes in light of the U.S. government's decision to prohibit the sale of the H20 AI accelerator, a product crucial for artificial intelligence applications, to Chinese customers.

In April, Nvidia had already announced plans to write off $5.5 billion related to the H20 chips, prompting analysts to project a potential revenue loss ranging from $10 billion to $16 billion. Huang's estimate aligns with the higher end of this range, highlighting the impact of these restrictions on the company's financial outlook.

During a recent podcast discussion, Huang emphasized that the withdrawal from the Chinese market could inadvertently accelerate the development of a domestic ecosystem for artificial intelligence in China, which has an annual market size of approximately $50 billion. He noted the importance of maintaining a presence in such a lucrative market, stating that relinquishing revenue opportunities and the associated ecosystem development is a significant loss.

Huang also pointed out that the U.S. government would miss out on approximately $3 billion in tax revenue as a consequence of these export limitations. He argued that the assumption that restricting China's access to H20 technology would hinder its AI development is misguided, suggesting that companies in China will continue to innovate despite these barriers.

Interestingly, Nvidia may still find ways to benefit from the ongoing high demand for AI accelerators in China. There have been ongoing allegations and speculations that NVIDIA products are still making their way to China through neighboring Asian countries. Some of this potential revenue could be realized through sales recorded in locations such as Singapore. Nvidia has consistently asserted its commitment to adhering to export regulations.

Despite the anticipated loss of $15 billion over several quarters, Nvidia is expected to remain financially robust. In its most recent fiscal quarter, the company reported $36.6 billion in revenue from server hardware, with 93% of that deriving from GPUs, which includes AI accelerators. Nvidia is scheduled to release its next business report on May 28.