Newly Discovered Asteroid Poses Risk of Earth Impact in 2032
A recently identified asteroid has emerged as one of the most concerning celestial threats to Earth in decades. Preliminary assessments indicate that there is a 1.2% likelihood that the asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, could collide with our planet in 2032.
According to data from NASA, the asteroid is expected to approach Earth on December 22, 2032, coming as close as 0.0017 astronomical units (approximately 255,000 kilometers). This estimate carries an uncertainty of 0.003 astronomical units. Historically, initial estimates for asteroids often show higher probabilities of impact, which tend to decrease as more precise measurements become available. For context, the asteroid Apophis had an estimated impact probability of 2.7% two decades ago, but that risk has since been ruled out.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 using a telescope in Chile. Measuring between 40 and 100 meters in diameter, it had just completed a close flyby of Earth on December 25, 2024, at a distance of about 0.0055 astronomical units (around 830,000 kilometers)--roughly twice the distance from the Earth to the Moon. Notably, it will not come this close again until its anticipated approach in 2032.
While the current estimated impact probability of 1.2% indicates a high level of concern, NASA emphasizes that this still means there is a nearly 99% chance that the asteroid will not collide with Earth. Should it happen to impact, potential strike locations could include regions in South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Central Africa, the Indian Ocean, or South Asia.
It is not uncommon for newly discovered asteroids to initially rank high on lists of hazardous objects due to limited observational data. As more precise orbital calculations are conducted, the estimated risk typically diminishes. A similar case occurred with the asteroid 2022 AE1, which was once considered a significant threat but has since fallen out of the top 100 hazardous objects as more data became available.
This discovery highlights the ongoing presence of potentially dangerous asteroids in our solar system, despite the fact that no known asteroid poses a significant threat of global destruction at this time. For context, smaller asteroids, around 10 meters in diameter, hit Earth approximately every ten years, while impacts from larger asteroids, around 100 meters in size, occur roughly once every 10,000 years. The 2013 Chelyabinsk event, where a 20-meter asteroid exploded over Russia, caused localized damage, while the 1908 Tunguska event is attributed to a much larger object.
Currently, astronomers have identified about 37,000 near-Earth asteroids, which are celestial bodies that come close to Earth's orbital path. The cataloging of these asteroids has accelerated in recent years as part of efforts to enhance planetary defense and recognize that asteroid impacts are among the few natural disasters that can potentially be mitigated by human intervention.
