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In the wake of the upcoming federal elections, the Union party, led by CDU Chairman Friedrich Merz, is poised to reclaim the Chancellor's office after nearly four years in opposition. Recent reports indicate that preliminary plans regarding the composition of the new government have emerged.
According to polling data, the CDU and CSU have maintained a lead in the run-up to the elections, undeterred by contentious debates over asylum policies and the increasing prominence of the far-right AfD party. If polling trends hold true, a victory for the Christian Democrats appears imminent. Potential coalition scenarios include partnerships with the SPD, the Greens, or even a combination of both, despite CSU leader Markus Söder's assurances that the Union will not form a coalition with the Greens.
The structure of the new government will largely depend on the coalition formed post-election. Leaked information from internal communications within the CDU/CSU suggests that significant changes to ministerial responsibilities are on the horizon. Noteworthy figures potentially included in a Merz-led cabinet are Carsten Linnemann, Jens Spahn, and Thorsten Frei.
Reports indicate that Merz intends to consolidate various existing ministries, creating what is being referred to as a 'Super Ministry.' This approach draws inspiration from the administration of former SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and his 'Super Minister,' Wolfgang Clement. Merz has expressed support for a similar integration of economic and labor policies, emphasizing the need for a streamlined governmental structure.
The proposed changes include the establishment of a new Ministry of Digitalization and a Ministry of Infrastructure, which would combine the current sectors of Transport, Construction, and Energy. Additionally, the Economic Ministry would relinquish its control over energy networks and climate policy, which would revert to the Environment Ministry, mirroring arrangements prior to the current governing coalition.
Another significant proposal involves the creation of a 'Super Ministry' for Social Affairs that would encompass the areas of pensions, family, and health. This would effectively remove the current standalone Ministry of Labor, headed by SPD minister Hubertus Heil. In coalition discussions, this restructuring could serve as a bargaining chip, offering the SPD a more robust social ministry in exchange for their concessions.
Furthermore, there are considerations to merge the Foreign Affairs and Development Ministries, potentially increasing the influence of a future coalition partner by enhancing the capabilities of a strengthened Foreign Ministry. This restructuring aligns with the Union's commitment to establish a National Security Council, as outlined in their electoral platform, which would be situated within the Chancellor's office.
As the CDU/CSU prepares for a likely victory, speculation regarding key appointments has also surfaced. The Union aims to assign pivotal ministries, namely the Interior and Economic Ministries, to individuals closely aligned with their core campaign themes of migration and economic policy. Candidates for these roles from Merz's shadow cabinet include Carsten Linnemann, Thorsten Frei, and Jens Spahn. Meanwhile, CSU leader Söder has indicated that Alexander Dobrindt will be allocated a significant ministry, which could include Interior, Finance, or Defense, all of which are crucial sectors potentially sought after by coalition partners.
The proposed Digital Ministry is expected to attract talent from outside the party, emphasizing the Union's intent to modernize and innovate governmental processes. Amidst these developments, Merz has instructed party members to maintain a positive discourse regarding potential coalition partners following the election, underscoring his commitment to a harmonious and efficient government formation process.
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