Kaja Kallas Advocates for 1.5 Million Artillery Shells for Ukraine

The European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, has introduced a significant proposal aimed at bolstering military support for Ukraine. Under her initiative, EU member states are urged to provide 1.5 million rounds of large-caliber artillery ammunition, along with additional air defense systems, missiles, and drones, while also enhancing training and equipment for army brigades throughout the year.

This proposal is set to be discussed for the first time by EU ambassadors, who are preparing for a meeting of foreign ministers scheduled for the upcoming Monday. In conjunction with this military aid initiative, the ambassadors have reached an agreement on a new sanctions package against Russia, which is expected to be enacted on the third anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.

Unlike previous military support initiatives led by her predecessor, Josep Borrell, Kallas's approach emphasizes voluntary participation from member states. Countries will be encouraged to agree on a total contribution for military assistance, which will be allocated based on their economic capacity. The estimated cost of providing 1.5 million artillery shells is approximately 7.5 billion euros. Member states have the option to either supply equipment directly to Ukraine or contribute funds to a support fund, with a combination of both methods also being permissible. This flexibility is particularly appealing to Germany, which has expressed support for Kallas's initiative. Notably, Hungary will not have the ability to block or delay these efforts as it has in the past, although it will not be compelled to contribute either.

In the previous year, the EU delivered around 1.1 million 155mm caliber shells to Ukraine, resulting in a marked improvement in the operational capabilities of Ukrainian forces. The disparity in force strength at critical frontlines has decreased to a ratio of 2:1 or 3:1 in favor of Russian troops, a significant reduction from earlier in the conflict. These artillery shells were sourced from new production as well as from stockpiles acquired from third-party countries. The European Commission has set a target for member states to produce about 2 million shells of this caliber per year by early 2026. However, achieving this goal may require global sourcing to fill existing gaps in supply chains.

The anticipated 16th sanctions package against Russia has been under discussion among member states since late January. Following an extensive four-hour negotiation session last Friday, there is optimism that all member states will agree on the sanctions during today's meeting. Hungary has not raised any objections recently, and the European Commission has made concessions to various countries, including Germany, to facilitate consensus.

The central element of the new sanctions package includes a ban on the import of raw aluminum from Russia, which has been a contentious issue due to its use in electric vehicle manufacturing and its scarcity in the global market. However, the EU has noted a substantial decline in Russian aluminum imports, which fell from 16% market share in 2000 to just 3% recently, indicating that alternative sourcing is feasible. Under the new measures, member states will be allowed to fulfill a maximum of 80% of their previous year's import quotas this year, honor existing contracts, and by 2026, completely cease imports of aluminum from Russia.

Additionally, the sanctions will target 73 more vessels associated with Russia's shadow fleet that circumvent oil sanctions, and will expand the blacklist to include ships posing environmental risks. The new measures will also complicate business activities for Russian banks, with 16 smaller institutions being added to the list, following the exclusion of major banks from the SWIFT payment system. One bank has been removed from the list at the request of Germany due to outstanding obligations to German customers.

The EU's focus will also extend to third-party companies supplying military-related components to Russia; 53 additional companies have been proposed for inclusion on the sanctions list, with nearly half based in China and Hong Kong. This underscores the lack of pressure from Beijing and the ineffectiveness of diplomatic efforts. As with previous sanctions, the current package includes business prohibitions on organizations as well as travel and asset freezes for individuals, with the list expanding to include 83 new entries, although two individuals were removed due to a veto from Slovakia.

These sanctions will come into effect once ratified by the foreign ministers and published in the EU Official Journal. Furthermore, the European Commission plans to implement additional tariffs targeting Russian goods, including steel products and food items such as honey, vegetables, and beer, as well as nitrogen-based fertilizers. However, these trade measures will require more time to finalize.