Study Reveals Diverse Effects of School Closures on COVID-19 Across 74 Nations

A comprehensive modeling study conducted by researchers at Monash University has examined the effects of school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic across 74 countries. The findings indicate that while school closures generally mitigated the impact of the virus in many regions, they also produced adverse outcomes in certain contexts.

The research, published in PLOS Medicine, utilized a mathematical model to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic curves from 2020 to 2022, taking into account the timing of school closures in various countries. The study also modeled an alternative scenario where schools remained open throughout the pandemic, focusing on key metrics such as infections, hospitalizations, and mortality rates. This analysis is noted to be one of the first long-term studies of its kind across such a diverse set of countries.

Results showed that in 58 of the 74 countries (78%), school closures had a favorable impact on infection rates, while in 65 countries (87%), they were linked to reductions in mortality. Additionally, school closures helped alleviate peak hospital occupancy pressures in 72 of the analyzed nations (97%). In Australia specifically, the study estimates that these measures may have cut COVID-19-related deaths by approximately 25% compared to a scenario without school closures.

Dr. Romain Ragonnet, an infectious diseases modeler at Monash University, highlighted that the findings for Australia mirrored those observed in several other countries, where the closure of schools significantly reduced the adverse effects associated with the initial waves of COVID-19.

The study noted that in Australia, school closures contributed to a decrease in infections caused by the Delta variant, which is known to be more transmissible than earlier strains. This reduction likely correlated with lower hospital occupancy and fewer deaths, particularly as Australia had not yet achieved a high level of vaccine coverage at the time the Delta variant emerged.

This research stands out as it evaluates the long-term epidemiological impact of school closures amidst the emergence of various COVID-19 variants, the rollout of vaccination efforts, and the evolution of population immunity. It provides detailed country-specific estimates of the effects of school closures, enriching the global perspective on this public health intervention.

Among the key findings:

• School closures significantly reduced infection rates across all countries in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
• In contrast, the United States and 25 out of 30 European nations experienced minimal or negative effects from school closures, with median reductions in infections and deaths being less than 10%.
• In Central and South America, school closures were associated with substantial reductions in peak hospital occupancy pressure.
• Positive impacts on infections, mortality, and peak hospital occupancy were observed in the five African nations analyzed.

Dr. Ragonnet emphasized the importance of examining the nuanced impacts of school closures, suggesting that while they may have reduced COVID-19 burdens in many instances, they also potentially increased cumulative mortality in a few cases. This highlights the complexity and context-specific nature of such public health measures.

Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers tasked with making informed decisions regarding public health interventions during pandemics. The study advocates for a balanced approach that considers both the benefits and potential unintended consequences of school closures.

Further investigation into the broader implications of school closures, including their effects on mental health, education, and the economy, is essential for comprehensive public health strategy development. Even in regions where closures were found to have a positive effect on COVID-19 metrics, a multifaceted evaluation is necessary to grasp the full spectrum of impacts on communities.

The research underscores that the effectiveness of school closure policies can vary significantly even within a single nation, as illustrated by the example of Indonesia, where closures prevented infections but resulted in increased COVID-19 mortality.

Overall, the findings advocate for a tailored approach to public health interventions, emphasizing the need to consider both immediate and long-term impacts on local epidemics.