Global PC Sales Rise Amid Anticipated US Tariffs

Global PC shipments witnessed a significant increase of 6.7% in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 61.4 million units, compared to the same period last year. This growth is primarily attributed to manufacturers accelerating their deliveries in anticipation of forthcoming US tariffs and the rising adoption of AI-capable PCs as support for Windows 10 comes to an end.

According to preliminary data from Counterpoint Research, this trend was unexpected just a few months ago when analysts suggested that the end of Windows 10 and the emergence of AI technology would not significantly boost PC sales. However, the recent surge indicates a potential shift in market dynamics, although experts caution that this growth may be short-lived due to the looming impact of US tariffs, which are anticipated to constrain the PC market's momentum throughout 2025.

Key players in the market, such as Apple and Lenovo, significantly contributed to this growth. Apple reported a remarkable 17% increase in shipments year-over-year, primarily driven by its AI-enabled MacBook series featuring the M4 processor. Similarly, Lenovo experienced an 11% rise in its PC deliveries, reflecting its expanded product range inclusive of AI-capable devices. As a result, Lenovo maintained a commanding 25% market share, followed closely by US firms Hewlett-Packard (HP) and Dell, which achieved growth rates of 6% and 4%, respectively, largely due to gains in the US market.

Market analysts highlight that future competition will depend on manufacturers' ability to diversify their supply chains and production locations while enhancing AI PC experiences through strategic partnerships across various sectors, including silicon, software, and model suppliers.

However, the PC industry faces significant challenges due to the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, which have introduced considerable tariff risks. Most global PC manufacturing remains concentrated in China, and the current US tariff policies have created uncertainty within the sector. Manufacturers are grappling with rising costs and potential declines in both supply and demand.

Although temporary tariff exemptions for certain electronic goods, including laptops and smartphones, have provided some relief, the overall uncertainty persists. The impending US tariffs on semiconductors and other technology products pose a risk of disrupting supply chains and dampening investments and demand for AI infrastructure and devices.

Given these challenges, analysts predict that laptop manufacturers will likely continue relocating production from China to alternative countries such as Vietnam, India, and Mexico, even though these nations also face varying degrees of US tariffs. The top priority for PC vendors will be to shift manufacturing of products destined for the US market to facilities outside of China.

The outlook for the PC market remains cautious. High tariffs and trade uncertainties may deter consumers and businesses from purchasing new devices due to the increased costs, subsequently hindering growth and market penetration. Ongoing global economic instability also poses additional risks to the projected moderate growth of the PC market in 2025.