Global Carbon Emissions Continue to Rise Despite International Climate Efforts

Recent findings from the Global Carbon Project indicate that worldwide carbon dioxide emissions are persisting at high levels, challenging the effectiveness of current climate policies. Despite some positive developments in certain regions, overall progress toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains insufficient to meet established climate targets.

While earlier reports suggested a decline in China's carbon emissions during the first half of 2024, updated data show a slight increase of around 0.5 percent in 2025 compared to the previous year. This revision is attributed to factors such as the additional day in the leap year and a margin of uncertainty in emission estimates. Researchers highlight that even small statistical variations can significantly influence emission trends when dealing with such large-scale figures.

The European Union also experienced a marginal rise in carbon emissions, approximately 0.5 percent, although some estimates suggest emissions may have plateaued or even declined, thanks in part to expanded solar energy adoption. Nevertheless, these minor shifts are overshadowed by increases in other major economies. The United States and Japan both saw emissions increase by nearly 2 percent, while India's emissions rose by approximately 1.5 percent.

Globally, carbon emissions from fossil fuel sources--coal, oil, and gas--are projected to reach nearly 38 billion metric tons in 2025, marking a 1.1 percent increase from the previous year. This ongoing upward trend has now persisted for more than half a century. Although Europe has managed to reduce emissions from coal, these reductions have been offset by rising emissions from oil and gas consumption. Climate experts warn that the lack of a significant downturn in global CO2 output is increasingly concerning given the urgent need to limit warming.

On a more positive note, the pace of annual global emissions growth has slowed compared to the previous decade. From 2015 to 2024, carbon emissions increased by an average of just 0.3 percent per year, down from almost 2 percent annually in the preceding decade. Over the past ten years, 35 countries, including the United States and European Union members, managed to lower their fossil fuel emissions while still achieving economic growth. Recently, additional countries such as Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Jordan have also made progress in curbing emissions.

Land-use emissions, which result from activities like deforestation and draining wetlands, have also seen a decline in some regions. Countries with significant rainforest areas--Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo--have historically been major contributors to emissions from land use. Notably, Brazil has achieved a significant reduction in deforestation rates since 2023, demonstrating the potential effectiveness of targeted environmental policies.

Despite these advancements, experts caution that incremental improvements are not enough. The remaining carbon budget that would allow a 50 percent chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is now nearly depleted. Even the threshold for a 2-degree Celsius increase may be surpassed within the next 25 years if current trends persist. This intensifies the urgency for comprehensive action, as each year without decisive change further reduces the time available to achieve emission reduction goals.

In summary, while there are encouraging signs of progress in certain regions and sectors, global carbon emissions continue to rise overall. The data underscore the need for accelerated international cooperation and stronger policy measures to achieve the necessary reductions and avoid surpassing critical climate thresholds.