Germany's Political Landscape Divided: Scholz Gains Ground Over Merz Amid Controversial Coalition with AfD

The latest Politbarometer indicates a significant division among the German populace regarding the political strategies of the CDU/CSU, particularly under the leadership of Friedrich Merz. This marks the first instance where the Union has accepted support from the AfD for a motion concerning stricter migration policies, raising concerns among coalition partners and the public alike.

In a recent vote within the Bundestag, a CDU/CSU proposal advocating for enhanced migration measures was passed with the backing of AfD representatives. This controversial decision has been met with disapproval from members of the SPD and the Greens, who perceive it as a breach of the established political boundaries. Merz himself has expressed regret over this coalition, despite having previously signaled his willingness to pursue such alliances in light of recent violent incidents in Aschaffenburg.

The data collected from a survey conducted by the Mannheim Research Group from January 27 to January 29 reveals that public opinion on this matter is quite polarized. A slim majority, 48%, opposes Merz's strategy of collaborating with the AfD for the adoption of stricter migration measures, while 47% support the initiative. Notably, two-thirds of Union supporters view this alliance as acceptable.

Furthermore, the survey highlights a growing reluctance among the general populace to endorse any partnership between the Union and the AfD, with two-thirds firmly against such cooperation. This figure has slightly increased compared to the previous week. Nonetheless, there is notable support for harsher migration policies, with a significant two-thirds favoring the rejection of asylum seekers lacking entry documents and over half advocating for permanent border controls.

Despite these preferences, a majority of the population, particularly younger voters, doubts that such measures will effectively address ongoing migration challenges. Almost 60% of those under 35 believe that tightening migration laws will not lead to significant improvements, while older demographics are more divided on this issue.

In terms of leadership preferences, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has gained notable traction in the recent polls, increasing his approval rating by four percentage points. Although Merz continues to lead in terms of who voters would prefer as Chancellor, Scholz's support has risen to 20%, placing him in a competitive position against Merz, who stands at 30%. In head-to-head scenarios, both candidates are now tied, indicating a shift in voter sentiment.

While the Union has experienced a slight decline in support, losing one percentage point to stand at 29%, the AfD is projected to receive 21% of votes if elections were held today. The SPD and Greens hold 15% and 14% respectively, while the Left Party remains at 5%. The FDP is at 4%, indicating a precarious position in the current political climate.

This shifting landscape reveals the complexities of German politics as parties navigate public sentiment, particularly in response to immigration issues. As parties attempt to position themselves ahead of upcoming elections, the implications of Merz's strategies and the growing acceptance of collaboration with the AfD will likely remain focal points of discussion.