Regulatory Agency Establishes Foundation for Power and Hydrogen Network Planning

The transition to renewable energy is set to accelerate as Germany's Federal Network Agency has officially approved new scenario frameworks for electricity and gas, including hydrogen. This move marks a significant step forward in planning the country's energy infrastructure to meet future demands.

According to agency leader Klaus Müller, these scenarios will provide a comprehensive outlook on the critical energy infrastructures within Germany, outlining potential developments up to the years 2037 and 2045. They will guide the planning process, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of how the electricity and hydrogen systems can evolve.

The approved scenarios include three distinct outlooks: the A scenarios, which adopt a cautious approach by estimating lower electricity consumption and a slower expansion of renewable energy; the B scenarios, which take a middle-ground stance; and the C scenarios, which present an ambitious transformation of the energy system. The C scenarios anticipate significant electrification across all sectors and a substantial increase in domestic electrolyzer capacity for green hydrogen production.

In the A scenarios, the agency has revised its forecasts to assume a lower projected electricity demand, leading to a reliance on importing considerable amounts of hydrogen from abroad. In contrast, the C scenarios predict an exponential growth in renewable energy sources, with installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity projected to rise from 100 gigawatts today to between 270 and 380 gigawatts by 2037. Similarly, onshore wind capacity is expected to increase from 63 to between 127 and 158 gigawatts, while offshore wind capacity could grow from the current 9 gigawatts to between 50 and 56 gigawatts.

Such expansions in renewable energy are deemed essential to accommodate a forecasted rise in electricity demand, which may double by 2037, reaching between 775 and 994 gigawatts. This surge is anticipated to be driven by the growing electrification of both transportation and heating, alongside the need for hydrogen production. The agency estimates that by 2037, there could be between 28 and 38 million electric vehicles and between 8 and 10 million heat pumps in operation, with electrolyzer capacity ranging from 20 to 42 gigawatts.

For the first time, the agency has also established unified assumptions regarding the sites of power plants and electrolyzers, providing a cohesive planning framework for both electricity and gas, including hydrogen.

The agency has refrained from emphasizing any particular scenario as the most realistic. Müller noted that the selected range of scenarios enables the network development planning to consider the effects of various energy policy decisions on the path to achieving a climate-neutral energy system in Germany. This is particularly relevant as the newly formed coalition government lays out its 100-day plan, which includes a commitment to comprehensive monitoring of supply security, network expansion, and the growth of renewable energy and hydrogen capabilities.

In the coming months, the four electricity transmission system operators, along with gas transmission operators, will develop detailed network expansion plans based on the newly approved scenario framework. These plans will specify which electricity and gas lines will require reinforcement or new construction, with regular updates every two years.