Concerns Mount as Electric Bus Expansion in Public Transport Faces Challenges

The landscape of public transport is witnessing an increasing presence of electric buses. However, the momentum behind the expansion of e-bus fleets is at risk of slowing down due to the recent cessation of federal funding.

According to a study conducted by the auditing firm PWC, the number of electric buses in operation has surged to nearly 3,400, with almost half of these vehicles added in the last two years. This year alone, transport companies are expected to procure close to 2,000 new electric buses, the majority of which will be battery-operated. A smaller portion will consist of buses powered by overhead lines, utilized in places like Solingen, as well as fuel cell buses.

Urban areas are leading the charge in this transition, with the number of municipalities employing emission-free buses more than doubling to 180 between 2020 and 2024. Hamburg currently tops the list with over 565 electric buses, while Berlin operates 227 and aims to nearly double this figure by 2027.

The rapid growth of electric bus fleets can be attributed to several factors. One key element is the federal mandate requiring a certain percentage of newly purchased city buses to have emission-free engines. By the end of this year, this requirement stands at 22.5% of new acquisitions, increasing to 32.5% by 2026. Notably, these quotas do not apply to buses used in rural regional transport.

However, the abrupt halt of federal subsidies for the acquisition of buses with alternative drives, initiated by the previous government following a constitutional court ruling, has created uncertainty. While many of the buses expected to be added this year will still qualify for previous funding, the withdrawal of support is expected to significantly slow the growth of e-bus fleets in the coming years. According to PWC's findings, projections indicate that only about 1,200 new electric buses may be introduced in 2026, with the figure dropping to approximately 450 in 2027.

High acquisition costs remain a substantial barrier. Although electric buses prove to be more economical in terms of operational costs due to lower energy prices, the overall capital expenditure is considerably higher. This is largely due to the need for more vehicles to meet shorter ranges, the development of charging infrastructure, and the initial purchase price of the buses themselves.

PWC analysts indicate that a new battery bus registered in 2023, when accounted for over a twelve-year lifecycle (with an annual mileage of 55,000 kilometers), will cost around 30% more than a diesel bus. While this cost gap is expected to narrow somewhat in the coming years, it is unlikely to disappear entirely.

Without supportive financial and incentive programs, there is a risk that the transition to electric buses could adversely affect public transport offerings, contradicting the climate, transportation, social, and structural policy goals in place. Thus, a commitment from the new government for such support is deemed necessary.

The urgency of the situation is underscored by upcoming EU regulations, which mandate that by 2030, 90% of all newly registered city buses must be emission-free, and all buses by 2035. The current fleet of city buses numbers approximately 35,000, with plans suggesting that around 9,100 would need to be equipped with the required engines by 2030.