Double Elections in Hamburg: Implications for Mayor Tschentscher
The city of Hamburg is preparing for a busy electoral season, with two significant elections scheduled within just one week. On February 23, residents will cast their votes in a federal election, followed by a state election for the Bürgerschaft on March 2. This tight election schedule has the potential to complicate the local political landscape significantly.
Peter Tschentscher, the Mayor of Hamburg and a member of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), has been leading a coalition government with the Greens for the past seven years. While Tschentscher is optimistic about his chances of re-election, the prevailing national political trends could pose a challenge to his campaign.
Recent polls indicate that Tschentscher's SPD holds a 32% approval rating, which is a notable decline compared to the last state election five years ago, where they garnered significantly higher support. Nevertheless, this figure still surpasses the current national trend for the SPD, which is around 15%. The Greens, meanwhile, are polling at 20%, creating a competitive environment for the upcoming state election.
The political dynamics in Hamburg have shifted since the last election cycle. Five years ago, there was speculation about the possibility of a female candidate leading the city for the first time. However, Tschentscher's SPD ultimately prevailed, finishing 15% ahead of the Greens on Election Day. This time, while the Greens are eager to maintain their coalition with the SPD, they are also eyeing opportunities to lead the government should the numbers allow for a potential coalition with the CDU.
The Hamburg CDU has worked diligently to recover from a disappointing performance in 2020, where they garnered only 11.2% of the vote. Currently, they are closing in on the Greens in approval ratings. Dennis Thering, the CDU's leading candidate, has expressed confidence in the party's improved standing. He has been vocal in his criticisms of Tschentscher's administration, particularly regarding issues of economic management and public safety.
Despite the challenges, Tschentscher intends to run a campaign focused solely on Hamburg, aiming to differentiate it from the national discourse. He believes that the local issues will resonate more with Hamburg's voters and hopes to capitalize on the support of his party members without excessive reliance on national figures.
In addition to the traditional parties, the far-right AfD is also a player in the upcoming elections. The party, which almost lost its presence in the Bürgerschaft in the last election, is now polling at around 10%. Their resurgence has been notable, despite internal controversies regarding members and their statements.
The upcoming elections will serve as a critical test for Hamburg's political landscape. With heightened scrutiny and participation anticipated, the outcomes could reverberate beyond the city's borders, influencing broader national politics.
