Donald Trump's Return: A Strategic Opportunity for China

The recent political climate in Europe has sparked discussions around the implications of Donald Trump's return to the White House, particularly regarding relations with China. In the past, European leaders emphasized the need for the EU to reduce its dependency on China. However, with Trump's re-election, some European officials, including Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, are advocating for a renewed engagement with Beijing.

Grzegorz Stec, a well-known expert on EU-China relations, cautions against this shift in strategy. He notes that the return of Trump, coupled with rising transatlantic tensions, presents a favorable scenario for China. Chinese officials are already attempting to leverage this situation to their advantage.

Lu Shaye, China's Special Representative for EU Affairs, has publicly contrasted China's approach with that of Trump, labeling it as one of 'peace, friendship, and win-win cooperation.' Despite his controversial history, including remarks that questioned Ukraine's sovereignty, his position illustrates China's intent to strengthen ties with Europe while also preparing for a more assertive stance in the future.

Stec elaborates on the expectations the EU has for China, highlighting critical areas such as China's relationship with Russia, human rights, and trade imbalances. He emphasizes that China has not made significant moves to address these concerns and is unlikely to do so in the near future.

As the EU prepares to commemorate 50 years of diplomatic relations with China, the invitation extended to Chinese President Xi Jinping for a summit in Brussels has been met with rejection, indicating that Europe is not a priority for China at this time. Instead, China seems focused on preventing a unified transatlantic approach to counter its rising influence, sharing strategic interests with Moscow in this pursuit.

China views the EU as a vital market for its products and is reliant on European technology. However, it appears that Beijing believes Europe will seek closer ties out of necessity due to the ongoing tensions with the United States. This leads to a perception in China that it does not need to offer substantial concessions, relying instead on friendly rhetoric and criticizing the shortcomings of the Trump administration.

Discussions surrounding China's potential involvement in peacekeeping operations in Ukraine have also emerged, though experts express skepticism about such initiatives. Stec points out that China's desire to project an image of a responsible global actor is undermined by its historical support for Russia's military actions, raising doubts about its credibility in any peacekeeping role.

Moreover, trade relations remain a contentious issue, with China primarily focused on accessing European markets while European businesses face challenges in China, including declining profitability and increased competition due to Chinese subsidies.

In light of these dynamics, Stec argues that Europe should not hastily pursue closer ties with China simply because of strained transatlantic relations. While cooperation in certain areas, such as climate change, is beneficial, it is crucial for Europe to remain aware of China's strategic interests, which often diverge from its own.