Navigating the Challenges of Coalition Formation Post-Bundestagswahl 2025

The upcoming Bundestagswahl in 2025 is poised to present significant challenges in coalition formation. As political parties prepare for the election, the potential for a fragmented parliament raises critical questions about the future governance of Germany.

Following the election, the newly elected Bundestag must convene within 30 days, specifically by March 25, to select a Bundestagspräsident. If no party achieves an absolute majority, initial exploratory talks will be initiated among parties to assess possible coalitions.

These coalition negotiations can be lengthy and complex, often extending for months, especially in a politically charged environment. During this time, the role of the Federal President becomes crucial, as they have the authority to influence the direction of the government formation process.

The process begins with the Federal President proposing a candidate for the chancellorship after consulting with the parliamentary factions. The candidate must secure an absolute majority in the Bundestag to be elected. If the first round of voting does not yield a successful candidate, a second round occurs within 14 days, allowing for the selection of an alternative candidate. If this also fails, a third round follows where a candidate can be elected by achieving a relative majority.

In the event that no stable coalition can be formed, the Federal President has several options. One possibility is to appoint a minority government, where a single party or a small coalition assumes power but must negotiate support for each legislative proposal. Although this method has not been utilized at the federal level, it has been seen in various state governments.

Another alternative is a tolerance model, where a party governs without a formal coalition but maintains support from other factions through abstention from votes. This approach provides a level of stability while avoiding the need for a formal agreement.

During the transitional phase, the outgoing government remains in office in a caretaker capacity. While they retain the same formal powers as a regular government, their actions are limited to essential functions to ensure the stability of the state. This government refrains from making significant policy decisions, particularly in areas such as foreign policy, and engages in a conservative fiscal approach, avoiding large-scale investments or new legislative initiatives.

The longest formation period for a government in Germany occurred after the 2017 Bundestagswahl, lasting nearly six months due to failed coalition talks involving the FDP and a subsequent shift in the SPD's willingness to cooperate. Throughout this period, the previous Chancellor Angela Merkel continued in a caretaker role.

Historical precedents exist in Germany where a clear majority was lacking following elections. For instance, in 1972, Chancellor Willy Brandt faced a crisis when he lost his majority due to party defections. Similarly, in 1982, Chancellor Helmut Schmidt's coalition faltered when the FDP left, leading to his replacement by Helmut Kohl through a constructive vote of no confidence. In 2005, both Angela Merkel and Gerhard Schröder struggled to form a government, ultimately resulting in the Grand Coalition.

The uncertainty surrounding coalition negotiations and potential governmental crises poses risks not only to political stability but also to economic and legislative processes. A caretaker government will likely limit ambitious legislative agendas and investment initiatives, as it prioritizes continuity and minimal intervention.