China's Strategic Balancing Act in the Ukraine Conflict: A Dual Role of Ally and Mediator

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches its fourth year, the relationship between China and Russia continues to unfold with complexity. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have recently showcased their close ties, coinciding with the somber anniversary of the ongoing war. While both leaders publicly express their strengthened partnership, Beijing is simultaneously positioning itself as a potential mediator in the conflict.

China's state-run news agency Xinhua emphasized the enduring friendship between the two nations, stating that history has demonstrated their commitment to mutual support and development. Despite this public camaraderie, China has refrained from criticizing Russia's actions or labeling it an aggressor, maintaining a unified front with Moscow.

However, the international landscape has shifted significantly. The military situation in Ukraine has become increasingly dire, and the political climate in Washington has evolved under the leadership of Donald Trump, whose views on resolving the conflict align more closely with Beijing's stance.

In mid-February, during the Munich Security Conference, China initiated a renewed diplomatic effort to position itself as a constructive force in a changing global environment. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi presented the country as a peace-seeking nation, reiterating its commitment to diplomacy. This assertion, while often perceived as disingenuous, has gained credibility amid more aggressive rhetoric from Western politicians.

The ongoing war has left deep scars in Ukraine, with many citizens, like Anna from Odessa, facing immense personal loss. Children affected by the conflict are now in shelters, grappling with grief and a sense of guilt for surviving. Anna's story highlights the human cost of the war and the urgent need for a resolution.

Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielus Landsbergis expressed concerns that China may seek to emerge from the conflict as a victor. He noted that if the United States and Europe fail to provide adequate support for Ukraine, China might exploit the situation to leverage its influence over Russia, potentially offering better terms than those proposed by Trump.

There is speculation that China could send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine, a move that would create unprecedented leverage over European security interests, possibly in exchange for concessions regarding human rights criticisms directed at China.

In Ukraine, perceptions of China's role in the conflict are mixed. Aljona Getmantschuk, a prominent political commentator, stated that while Beijing may not fully support Russia's quest for victory, it is committed to ensuring that Russia does not face defeat. This perspective underscores the complexities of international alliances and the intricate web of support surrounding the conflict.

China's economy has become vital for sustaining Russia's war efforts. Since the beginning of the invasion, Chinese imports of Russian oil have surged, and the country has been a significant exporter of dual-use goods--technologies applicable for both civilian and military purposes. Nevertheless, Beijing has drawn a line at directly supplying weapons to Russia.

Despite outward appearances of unwavering friendship, the relationship between China and Russia appears to be driven by mutual benefits rather than genuine camaraderie. Both nations share a common stance against the liberal democratic values espoused by the West, fostering a bond rooted in pragmatism.

Looking ahead, China aims to maintain the image of a peace-promoting nation, particularly as it seeks to be involved in the reconstruction of Ukraine post-conflict. Experts suggest that China is keen to project itself as a stabilizing force, which could position it favorably for future economic and political engagements.

In South Korea, where caution is typically exercised regarding relations with China, experts are beginning to recognize a more complex threat landscape. As highlighted by Jun Hae-won from the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, while North Korea is officially viewed as the primary threat, the broader implications of China's rise present a more intricate and long-term challenge.