Betting Agency Predicts Outcome of Upcoming Bundestag Election
As Germany gears up for its Bundestag election on February 23, 2025, the betting platform Polymarket has made bold predictions regarding the political landscape. Following the dissolution of the previous coalition government, the Union parties, particularly CSU/CDU, are forecasted to emerge victorious in the elections, with Friedrich Merz as their candidate for Chancellor.
According to Polymarket, the likelihood of Merz succeeding in his bid for the Chancellorship stands at an impressive 92%. The probability of the CDU/CSU winning the overall election is even higher, at 93%. This marks a significant turnaround for the Union parties, which have faced challenges in recent years.
In stark contrast, current Chancellor Olaf Scholz from the SPD and the Green Party's Robert Habeck are considered to have minimal chances of retaining their positions. Polymarket assigns a mere 2% chance to Scholz and just 1% to Habeck regarding their potential leadership after the election. The SPD and the Greens are also predicted to struggle, with odds of just 1% for the SPD and less than 1% for the Greens to win the election.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) shows a somewhat more favorable outlook, with Polymarket estimating a 6% chance of Alice Weidel becoming the next Chancellor. The AfD is projected to secure the second-highest number of votes, with a 78% likelihood of finishing ahead of the SPD, which is estimated to achieve only 17% of the vote.
Other parties, such as the BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, and the FDP, under Christian Lindner, are predicted to fare poorly, with their chances of winning the election assessed at below 1%. In fact, Lindner is not even mentioned as a viable candidate for Chancellor by Polymarket.
As for potential coalition formations, Polymarket indicates a strong likelihood of the CDU being part of the next government, with a 95% probability. The SPD is expected to have an 81% chance of participation, while the Greens are assessed at 33% and the FDP at 20%. The chances of the AfD and BSW entering the government are considered very low, estimated at 6% and 4%, respectively.
Polymarket's predictions are notable given their recent track record; the platform accurately forecasted Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. elections, despite many polls suggesting a closer race.
