Baltic States and Poland Seek EU Funding for Defense

In light of recent geopolitical tensions, the Baltic nations of Lithuania and Estonia, alongside Poland, are advocating for increased defense budgets and are looking towards the European Union for financial support. This initiative has been ignited by previous calls from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested that NATO member states should allocate 5% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defense spending, a figure that has raised eyebrows among many nations.

Currently, no NATO member meets this 5% threshold, and several, including Italy, Spain, and Canada, have not even reached the 2% benchmark established during a NATO summit in Wales in 2014. Germany has largely rejected Trump's proposal, with only the far-right AfD party expressing support. Political leaders have emphasized that the focus should be on necessary military capabilities, rather than arbitrary spending targets.

If Germany were to adopt the suggested 5% defense budget, its military spending would skyrocket from approximately EUR52 billion to over EUR215 billion, which would significantly strain its national budget.

Amidst the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, both the Baltic states and Poland perceive a growing threat from Russia. The Russian defense budget is projected to increase, but it still lags behind the collective military expenditures of NATO members, which currently amount to approximately EUR1.43 trillion compared to Russia's EUR127.4 billion.

In a notable policy shift, Lithuania has announced plans to boost its defense spending from over 3% of GDP to 6%. This decision, articulated by President Gitanas Nauseda, reflects a commitment to enhanced military readiness in response to perceived threats. Lithuania's Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys has called on allies to follow suit, indicating that passive strategies are no longer viable.

Estonia's Prime Minister Kristen Michal has also publicly supported Trump's defense spending goals, advocating for accelerated military capability enhancements. Poland, too, is aligning itself with these demands, suggesting that if the nation can incur debt for pandemic recovery, it certainly can invest in its defense.

Poland is already planning a defense budget of 4.7% of its GDP for 2025, representing a significant increase. However, inquiries regarding the basis for these planned increases, particularly whether they stem from a thorough needs assessment, remain unanswered by officials from Lithuania and Estonia.

Experts suggest that the push for higher defense budgets in the Baltic region stems from long-standing geopolitical vulnerabilities. The relatively small size of their military forces raises concerns about their ability to withstand potential aggression. For instance, Lithuania's active military personnel count stands at approximately 25,000, a figure that is minimal compared to larger NATO nations.

In discussions regarding defense, the Baltic nations have argued for more substantial investments from NATO, fearing that reinforcements may not arrive in time during a crisis. This sentiment has contributed to their calls for increased EU funding to support their military enhancements.

At a recent EU summit, leaders from Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland reiterated their requests for greater defense spending. They proposed a substantial EUR100 billion boost for military expenditures and advocated for a long-term doubling of the EU's defense budget, currently set at EUR326 billion for 2024.

The EU Commission has acknowledged the necessity of higher defense spending among member states, encouraging nations to take responsibility for their security. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the specific financial support for the defense budgets of the Baltic states and Poland, with the EU Commission deferring to NATO for further guidance.