Aviation Emissions Surge Due to Flight Diversions Caused by Ukraine Conflict

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has led to significant changes in aviation routing, resulting in a notable increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from air travel, according to researchers from the Sorbonne University in Paris.

In 2023, global aviation experienced a 1% rise in CO2 emissions attributed directly to the rerouting of flights around Russian airspace due to the conflict. The researchers found that flights on these altered routes consumed, on average, 13% more jet fuel, with routes between Europe and Asia experiencing an even steeper increase of 14.8%. It is estimated that approximately 1,100 flights are diverted each day, contributing an additional 8.2 million tons of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere over the course of the year.

Since Russian forces began their invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the number of flights operating between Europe and East Asia has dramatically decreased. Co-author Nicolas Bellouin noted that while airlines have adjusted their travel routes, the necessary detours often extend over Central Asia or the Arctic, significantly increasing flight distances and fuel consumption.

The research team utilized data from flight tracking systems and computer models to assess the impact of these changes on fuel usage, accounting for variables such as prevailing winds, which can greatly influence fuel efficiency.

Globally, the aviation sector is responsible for approximately 2% of total CO2 emissions, a figure that has been rising steadily. As even minor alterations in flight operations can lead to considerable increases in greenhouse gas emissions, the implications of the ongoing conflict on air travel are significant.

The study also examined the impact of other conflicts, including those in Libya, Syria, and Yemen, on aviation emissions. However, these conflicts caused only a marginal increase of 0.2% in emissions due to fewer daily affected flights and shorter detours compared to the situation in Ukraine. The findings of this research have been published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.

In light of these findings, the aviation industry faces increasing pressure to explore sustainable alternatives, including advancements in biofuels and other eco-friendly technologies, to mitigate the environmental impact of air travel.