Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 2024 YR4: OHB Explores Defense Strategies

A potentially hazardous asteroid designated as 2024 YR4 may pose a collision risk to Earth in 2032. In light of this, the German aerospace company OHB has commenced the evaluation of a possible defense mission.

Recent assessments have indicated an increased likelihood of a collision during the asteroid's next approach, making this the optimal time for a defensive initiative, according to OHB. The company, known for its involvement in asteroid missions--including the construction of the ESA's Hera probe--has outlined that the best launch window for a potential mission would be in 2028. However, OHB has refrained from disclosing specific details about the proposed defense strategy against 2024 YR4, choosing instead to note that the impact probability could soon decrease to zero.

The asteroid, which measures between 40 and 90 meters in size, was detected at the end of December. Subsequent observations have led to its classification as one of the most dangerous near-Earth objects currently being monitored by both the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA. Based on nearly 400 observations, NASA has determined an impact probability of 2.6%, while ESA estimates it at 2.4%. Although these figures indicate a greater than 97% chance that the asteroid will miss Earth, the calculated risk remains one of the highest recorded for a significant-sized space rock.

OHB's evaluation of potential defense measures is informed by previous missions, such as the ESA's Hera, which is currently en route to the asteroid moon Dimorphos. In a notable event from September 2022, the NASA mission Dart (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) collided with Dimorphos to test asteroid deflection strategies. If actions are taken early enough, it is theoretically possible to alter the trajectory of an asteroid like 2024 YR4 to prevent an impact with Earth.

Currently, 2024 YR4 is classified as a class 3 threat on the Torino Scale, indicating it is one of the most hazardous asteroids identified. Historically, only one asteroid, (99942) Apophis, achieved a higher classification after its discovery in 2004, though it is now considered non-threatening. The classification of 2024 YR4 underscores its significance not only for astronomy but also for public awareness and the attention of official agencies, considering the potential for localized or regional destruction in the event of an impact.

In response to the potential threat posed by 2024 YR4, two United Nations-recognized organizations--NASA's International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and ESA's Space Planning Advisory Group (SPMAG)--have begun coordination efforts. Following recent meetings, these organizations have committed to further observation and investigation of the asteroid, with discussions on possible countermeasures already underway. The James Webb Space Telescope is anticipated to provide critical data regarding the asteroid's size and orbit in the near future.