Asteroid 2024 YR4's Impact Risk Surpasses Apophis

An intriguing development has emerged regarding the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4, which recently exceeded a significant threshold of impact probability, briefly surpassing the previously held record by the asteroid Apophis. Initial calculations indicated that 2024 YR4 had an impact probability exceeding three percent, marking a notable increase compared to Apophis's peak of 2.7 percent. This finding was reported by the European Space Agency (ESA) just before the assessed collision risk decreased again.

Currently, the estimated impact probability for 2024 YR4 stands at approximately 1.5 percent according to NASA, and 1.4 percent as per ESA's data. The asteroid, which was discovered at the end of December, has held the top spot on both agencies' lists of hazardous near-Earth objects for several weeks.

As observed through ESA's analysis, the uncertainty surrounding 2024 YR4's trajectory is expected to diminish as more observations are conducted. This reduction in uncertainty is crucial, especially considering that the asteroid will be passing through an uncertain zone until around Christmas 2032. During this period, the calculated probability of a collision with Earth may fluctuate. It is only when the Earth exits this uncertain zone that the likelihood of an impact will be confirmed to be zero.

Currently, 2024 YR4 is estimated to measure between 40 and 90 meters in diameter. Should the smaller size be accurate, the consequences of an impact would likely be localized. Conversely, if it is closer to the larger estimate, the effects could be felt across broader regions. A more precise determination of its size is anticipated from the James Webb Space Telescope, which is expected to provide clearer data about the asteroid's characteristics.

Despite the ongoing assessments, the asteroid remains classified as a class three on the Torino Scale, which is used to assess the potential threat posed by near-Earth objects. In response to the asteroid's heightened profile, various planetary defense organizations have begun discussions regarding potential mitigation strategies. Recently, the German aerospace company OHB announced it is exploring plans for a possible deflection mission that could utilize a close approach of 2024 YR4 in 2028 to alter its trajectory slightly, ensuring that it misses Earth during its next flyby.

While the probability of needing such a mission remains low, the prolonged duration of 2024 YR4's status as a significant risk factor has prompted increased attention and scrutiny from the scientific community. As new data continues to emerge, the global response to the potential threat posed by asteroids will remain a critical area of focus for space agencies and researchers alike.